Interview, Fireside Chat
a16z Podcast | The Curious Case of the OpenTable IPO
Core Context & Strategic Decisions
- OpenTable successfully executed an IPO in late 2008/early 2009 during the nadir of the Great Depression, when the IPO window for technology firms was effectively "bricked over" with only one tech-like IPO (Mead Johnson) occurring that year.
- The company raised approximately $70 million in the primary offering, followed by a $210 million follow-on transaction in September 2009.
- OpenTable priced its IPO at $20 per share despite being oversubscribed by ratios as high as 10:1 or 25:10, leaving significant capital "on the table" to avoid over-optimization of the first-day pop.
- The team prioritized long-term shareholder stability over maximizing initial proceeds, aiming for a second-year secondary offering rather than a single "perfect" IPO price.
- Management insulated the rest of the company from the IPO process; only the CEO (Jeff Jordan) and CFO (Matt Roberts) led the roadshow for approximately two and a half weeks while the rest of the San Francisco team continued operations.
- The selection of Merrill Lynch as the lead banker was a deliberate strategic choice to prioritize capital markets expertise and investor relationships over the firm's general ranking on the "pyramid" of tech banking.
- The board was involved in the banker "bake-off" and pricing decisions but was kept out of the day-to-day execution to minimize internal distraction.
- OpenTable engaged in a "soft track record" process, meeting with institutional investors (like Fidelity and Morgan Stanley) six months prior to the formal roadshow to verbally confirm revenue forecasts and business fundamentals.
- The company convinced key investors to take initial positions in a small $37 million offer by demonstrating a plan for a larger future secondary transaction, creating "tentpole" investors who would hold the stock long-term.
- Management explicitly rejected the strategy of pricing high to maximize immediate proceeds, opting instead to price lower ($20 vs. potential $22-$25) to build goodwill and ensure a stable shareholder base for future capital raises.
- The company faced a patent troll lawsuit filed mid-roadshow and a regulatory delay caused by attorneys attaching erroneous documents to the SEC filing the night before the launch, resulting in a delayed market open (roughly 10:00 AM instead of 9:30 AM).
IPO Mechanics, Pricing, & Liquidity Dynamics
- A standard 180-day lockup period was enforced for insiders to signal market confidence; selling immediately after lockup expiration would have caused a catastrophic price drop.
- The IPO float was kept small ($70 million), leading to extreme illiquidity where daily trading volumes sometimes consisted of only 2,000 to 2,500 shares.
- Management prioritized allocating shares to a narrow group of deep-pocket investors (e.g., Will Danoff of Fidelity, Dennis Lynch of Morgan Stanley) who understood the business model long-term rather than a broad distribution of momentum traders.
- The team deliberately avoided giving formal earnings guidance, a decision supported by their largest three shareholders who argued that guidance creates pressure to prioritize short-term numbers over strategic long-term interests.
- The company relied on high transparency regarding operational metrics (e.g., table seeding numbers) rather than financial guidance, allowing investors to build accurate models based on the law of large numbers.
- The roadshow involved repeating the exact same presentation and Q&A answers 42 times across different cities to comply with Regulation FD (Fair Disclosure), requiring extreme discipline from the CEO and CFO.
- The company faced a "momentum investor" influx only after growth rates exceeded 40%, which introduced volatility and required additional investor management efforts.
- The IPO pricing range was dynamically adjusted from an initial $12–$14 to $16–$18 based on roadshow demand before settling at the final price of $20.
Market Analysis & Forward-Looking Insights
- Jeff Jordan advises that "good companies can go public whenever they want," whereas mediocre companies rush to exit whenever a window opens, often resulting in underperformance.
- The podcast suggests that timing the IPO should be based on the company's readiness and growth trajectory rather than attempting to time the broader market, which is a long process.
- The Jobs Act has formalized "testing the waters" meetings, allowing management to gauge investor interest pre-filing, though diminishing returns set in if the number of meetings becomes too large.
- Companies should aim for a growth narrative in their IPO; investors pay a higher multiple for growth stocks (30–40% growth) versus mature companies (teens growth), and growth rates typically decline over time.
- IPO sizes below certain market cap thresholds reduce the pool of eligible institutional investors, making it harder to achieve sufficient float and liquidity.
- Management teams should recruit investors who want to "hold the tent up" during difficult times, as these stakeholders provide stability when the stock price dips.
- The process of going public creates a "two-year view" of shareholder expectations; early investors monetize only after the lockup expires, meaning true liquidity is a long-term goal.
- The OpenTable case is now taught at Stanford Business School (via Andy Ratcliffe) as a study on executing an IPO in the worst capital market conditions in decades.
- The conversation highlights that while market windows do open and shut, the "best companies" often create their own windows by preparing to execute regardless of the external environment.
- A specific lesson on banking relationships is that the lead bank should not be a "black box" for allocations; a dialogue between management and the bank regarding who receives shares is critical for long-term stability.
- Management should ensure the CFO can articulate the business story effectively; if the CFO lacks the ability to tell the story or build trust, the company is effectively signaling a lack of credibility to investors.