Interview
a16z Podcast | The Law (and Tech) of Warfare
- Lawfare is projected to experience exponential growth in readership and relevance as an authoritative counter to partisan opinion, driven by a public demand for grounded technical expertise in national security.
- Current inactivity in encryption policy is expected to precipitate a "giant spasmodic debate" and a legislative crisis triggered by a catastrophic event involving unopenable devices, potentially leading to a "bursting" of policy dams where governments react to crises rather than engaging in serious ongoing debate.
- In litigation scenarios involving encryption backdoors, losing companies are anticipated to seek congressional action to reverse judicial losses, resulting in a legislative compromise, while the broader "crypto wars" are predicted to shift into "phase three" characterized by a "war of attrition" with repeated "little battles."
- Federal cybersecurity policy is expected to remain significantly difficult to address due to politicization, requiring agreement on political stances regarding Vladimir Putin and WikiLeaks before technical solutions can be agreed upon.
- The specific legal and policy salience surrounding the closure of Guantanamo Bay is forecast to fade as the dispute narrows to points where immediate resolution may no longer be meaningful.
- Public debate over drone strikes is expected to persist even if actual strike numbers decline, with the conversation shifting toward "arguably" unresolved questions.
- Remote sexual violence, specifically sextortion, is predicted to grow exponentially, with victim numbers rising from a current minimum of 1,300 to a probable 6,000.
- U.S. government authority is expected to become the predominant theme of policy discussions for the coming years due to the necessity of confronting an adversary characterized as acting against U.S. interests.
- The insularity of academia is feared to hinder the replication of Lawfare's model by other outlets, as serious academics remain an "untapped resource" unwilling to edit work for broader audiences or communicate with non-specialist readers.
- Legal targeting questions regarding autonomous systems will continue to involve "wrestling," with the debate extending to "very futuristic questions" regarding whether the "targeting authority itself is autonomous."
- Consumer drone proliferation is expected to narrow the capability gap between private individuals and government agencies, reducing the distinction primarily to "carrying capacity" and "sophisticated weapons."
- The media landscape will continue to require a "first person voice for experts" to prevent the dilution of expertise by third-person reporting, sustaining the "long tail" phenomenon where niche experts find audiences.
- Public perception of Lawfare is expected to continue flipping toward a view of the outlet as "not left, just professional," despite the persistence of the "handmaiden of power" moniker used internally as a label for their work.
- Political divisions are forecast to continue being defined by an "us versus them" conception, with the primary axis being the extent to which individuals believe "foreigners are fleecing the United States" across sectors like immigration, trade, and finance.
- The traditional role of government in providing security is expected to be displaced by a "many to many" dynamic of threats and defenses, creating a governance challenge where "governance is in the cloud."
- Technological "trickling down" of military capabilities to consumer use will create tension and complexity in international security as "off-the-shelf components" increasingly enter military settings.
- The "perfecting of discrimination" in warfare, characterized by collateral damage reduced to near-zero levels, is expected to make combat operations appear more like "assassination" than conventional military targeting.
- Regulating a world where "anyone can attack anyone from anywhere" will become a central focus for the book "The Future of Violence," addressing the dual capacity of individuals to engage in both defense and attack.
- Media evolution will continue to struggle between academic insularity and the need for journalistic translation, with Lawfare's use of law students serving as a "replicable thing" that other media should adopt but likely will not.
- Risks exist that rash judgments regarding immigration admissibility could lead to the "re-injuring" of terrorism victims due to a failure to properly "discriminate" between terrorists and victims.