Interview, Fireside Chat
a16z Podcast | The Promise (and Nightmare) of Cross-Platform Software
- Apple is expected to deepen its platform strategy and enhance user experience through tighter integration of new features, Siri, and the Mac ecosystem, anticipating a more advanced dashboard.
- Cross-platform development is predicted to become increasingly challenging due to accelerating divergence between Apple and Google platform philosophies, with Android's specific trajectory remaining unknown five years out.
- Developers ignoring specific platform integrations such as HomeKit or advanced Photos APIs face the risk of creating inferior products, as users are expected to perceive cross-platform apps as lacking compared to native experiences.
- The industry is projected to shift focus from aggregate market share to targeted decisions based on specific demographics and engagement levels, requiring a strategic choice between cutting-edge platform tools and common denominator APIs.
- Apple's iPhone market share is expected to exceed 60% in San Francisco and 50% in Japan, remain near a 50/50 split in the USA, and vary in growth rates across geographic regions, with the company predicted to sell 600 million devices.
- A competitive advantage is anticipated for those treating mobile development as two distinct products or focusing on a single platform, whereas those targeting the lowest common denominator of tools may only effectively serve mass-market apps.
- The final 10% of platform-specific work is predicted to be the primary differentiator in app quality and backend experience, with companies failing to focus deeply on one or both platforms separately likely to lose ground to domain-specific competitors.