Interview, Fireside Chat
a16z Podcast | The Wearables Session
- Emerging wearables are expected to focus on specific use cases across fitness, health, fashion, communication, and identity, with a prediction that adoption will follow a clothing-like lifecycle of seasonal versions and context-specific devices.
- Product functionality may shift toward discrete communication without screens due to battery technology limitations requiring large form factors, while smart environment controls could eventually consolidate into existing phones or watches.
- Enterprise applications are forecast to lead consumer adoption, leveraging corporate ability to control entire networks and reconfigure facilities, with expectations that strong enterprise cases for devices like Google Glass will drive initial success.
- The market is predicted to experience a 10-plus-year development period similar to the early internet, where initial infrastructure groundwork precedes the invention of major new applications by developers once a sufficient network effect and user base are established.
- Large employers with over 500 employees are expected to distribute wearable health devices to their workforce to self-insure against health costs, creating a strong economic incentive for bulk adoption.
- Industry development is currently driven by platform capabilities rather than specific use cases, with predictions that early mass success could be delayed if battery technology and platforms are not fully ready, similar to the Apple Newton era.
- Hardware startups are expected to continue bypassing traditional venture capital through crowdfunding platforms like Kickstarter, though prototyping for very small devices will remain particularly expensive.
- Direct-to-consumer sales models are anticipated to allow manufacturers to spend nearly twice as much on build quality and bypass the enormous volume requirements needed for retail distribution.
- Consumer notification management is predicted to require new platforms that allow users to prioritize information, addressing perceived shortcomings in current large company approaches.
- Future wearables are expected to move from early design flaws toward high-quality, beautiful products, provided companies focus on solving specific problems rather than packing unnecessary functionality.
- Significant uncertainty remains regarding whether smart environment interactions will be perceived as gimmicky or genuinely desired, contingent on the industry evolving from early design flaws to sophisticated, well-designed solutions.