Interview
a16z Podcast | Virtual Reality v Augmented Reality, and What's Next
- Virtual Reality is projected to achieve immediate market availability via the Samsung Gear VR released in December, whereas Augmented Reality faces a significant $500 million barrier to full realization through Magic Leap.
- Technical bottlenecks persist for AR as achieving low-latency, real-time machine vision for real-world overlays remains far beyond current capabilities, while VR has already resolved many such technical issues.
- The industry anticipates a transition within the next couple of years to a single device capable of handling fully contained VR and a continuum of AR overlays, a shift expected by Google and Magic Leap.
- Microsoft's HoloLens roadmap is predicted to shift from a gaming and internet focus to becoming integral to Windows 10 and enterprise applications following leadership changes under Satya Nadella.
- Oculus is forecasted to launch with a dual focus on entertainment and media viewing alongside gaming, commissioning 360-degree videos and streaming experiences immediately while games like Blaze Rush and Lucky's Tale are in development.
- First-person VR game design is expected to require slowed pacing, rail-based movement, or specific control schemes like instant 90-degree swivels to mitigate disorientation and simulator sickness.
- Game designers are predicted to implement a content hierarchy ranging from G to NC-17 to regulate VR experiences based on motion intensity, restricting high-intensity content from children.
- Major AAA studios including EA and Activision are expected to delay heavy investment until hardware specifications are more entrenched, while the market may see a resurgence of "double-A" games priced between $10 million and $20 million.
- Hollywood is predicted to transition from using VR for ancillary marketing to developing full narrative film experiences, evidenced by Annapurna Pictures' "Verse" platform and the recruitment of Pixar talent.
- A new visual grammar for VR filmmaking is expected to emerge to address establishing shots and audience attention in a 360-degree sphere, requiring new coding or subtle highlighting zones to guide the viewer.
- VR certification standards are not expected to emerge soon if a "maximalist" view dominates the market, creating a "constant horse race" with no single enforced bar.
- Simulator sickness is predicted to shift from a technical latency issue to a content design challenge, necessitating new rules to prevent physical nausea caused by emotional triggers such as sudden violence.
- Nintendo is forecasted to enter the VR space cautiously, likely waiting to observe market evolution before leveraging their intellectual property, following their historical three-to-four-year delay in adopting new technologies.
- Future VR experiences are expected to rely heavily on "truly calibrated" directional audio using binaural recording techniques to simulate sound sources based on head and ear shape.
- Live-action VR capture is predicted to remain proprietary with no single all-in-one solution emerging, as companies like Jaunt, Next VR, and Frame Store explore distinct camera array and video processing methods.