Conference Presentation, Fireside Chat, Interview
a16z Podcast | VR, AR, and Beyond: The New Medium of Human Experience
- High-quality consumer VR headsets avoiding motion sickness are expected soon, shifting hardware-induced issues to software challenges, with gaming anticipated to serve as the primary "killer app" for early adoption.
- Studios are moving toward funding VR content for direct monetization, though the current addressable market remains too small to recoup millions in production costs; consequently, creators must begin exploring content now to be positioned for future market expansion.
- Narrative formats for VR media are undefined and will remain fluid, changing on a bi-monthly basis, with probable future paths involving game-like experiences, live events, and interactive storytelling structures akin to "Westworld."
- Self-expression and social functionality will evolve from flat 360-degree video and 2D sharing toward user-generated virtual worlds, potentially enabling VR to become the most social medium by immersing users in shared physical environments rather than side-by-side viewing.
- Future ecosystems will range from purely synthetic worlds to augmented overlays, eventually diverging into distinct uses where VR and AR each excel, with AR lagging VR by approximately two years due to optical and computer vision complexities.
- Emerging platforms will support real-time rendered AI-driven humans and environments, allowing dynamic interaction that surpasses current static photo-realistic capabilities.
- Specific applications in education and museums are projected to utilize photogrammetry for immersive historical experiences and contextual overlays, while technology for capturing emotionally resonant personal memories in VR will likely become available in the coming years.
- Widespread adoption of 360-degree capture and consumer distribution is not imminent and requires solving technical barriers before democratization of user-generated content can occur.
- The industry landscape may see established media giants contribute existing IP rather than lead the medium, with new companies potentially emerging as dominant social platforms similar to the internet and mobile trajectories.
- High-end headsets will become accessible to the general public for native storytelling, while investments in underlying infrastructure for VR and AR remain equal as both mediums are in early developmental stages.