Interview, Podcast
a16z Podcast | We Gotta Talk Pokémon Go
- An endless runner concept without mechanics enabling real-world social interaction is predicted to cause the IP to fade away, necessitating features like trading, raiding, and increasingly difficult "end game" content to sustain engagement similar to World of Warcraft.
- Network effects are not yet fully established in current iterations but could be amplified through specific mechanics such as lures, Pokémon trading, and monetization channels where retailers pay for in-app purchases.
- Five years out, users are expected to have constant virtual overlays via AR glasses, with potential capabilities including signaling mood or appearance through filters and avatars.
- Retail and hospitality sectors anticipate using in-app elements like lures and rare items to drive foot traffic, evidenced by McDonald's partnerships and plans for gym integrations at nearly 3,000 Japanese stores shortly after release.
- Enterprise applications are forecast to layer deep expertise onto field workers, such as copy machine repair, while consumer uses include IKEA's virtual furniture placement and childproofing identification via single camera passes.
- Massive AR adoption could enable a "Panopticon" of live camera views, allowing companies to access location data APIs for real-time foot traffic tracking.
- Financial sectors, including hedge funds, may utilize this data to make market bets by monitoring parking lot density and individual movement patterns to stores.
- Market entrants face uncertainty regarding immediate utility and product capacity, as demonstrated by rumors of Snapchat's unclear AR glasses timeline and the historical survival of apps that differentiated significantly from competitors like Facebook.
- The technology's future trajectory relies on balancing rudimentary "light AR" without additional hardware against more advanced hardware solutions, with the former currently limited in its ability to provide a network effect.