Interview, Fireside Chat
a16z Podcast | What Comes After the Smartphone
- The technology wave succeeding smartphone saturation is projected to be approximately ten times the size of the mobile phone industry, driven by a shift from hardware form factors to a "Cambrian explosion" of software innovation on established platforms.
- The global smartphone installed base is expected to reach two billion within the next couple of years, with total usage potentially expanding to five to six billion devices when tablets are included, while the PC ecosystem shrinks to a smaller, isolated base.
- Future computing innovation is anticipated to be led by the ARM ecosystem rather than the x86 Windows architecture, which is predicted to reach its logical conclusion as the Wintel share of total unit sales declines from roughly 15% to 10%.
- Startups are forecast to find greater success developing services on stable iOS and Android platforms during a "golden age" of lower infrastructure uncertainty, rather than attempting to launch new hardware platforms.
- The IoT market is expected to utilize smartphone components and cloud connectivity to form a shared identity and coding model involving ten to hundreds of devices per person, functioning as extensions of the mobile ecosystem instead of creating fifteen separate home systems.
- Software built atop the mobile platform is predicted to become a market ten times larger than physical device sales, dwarfing the hardware similar to how Office or databases exceeded their underlying infrastructure in prior eras.
- The Apple ecosystem, currently comprising 700 to 750 million active devices, is expected to secure the majority of app store revenue and half of web traffic, maintaining a position alongside Android as one of two global winning platforms.
- Uncertainty exists regarding whether a future generational hardware change will match the scale of the smartphone transition, given that the mobile market has already achieved near-global connectivity with "everybody on Earth" connected.