Interview, Fireside Chat
a16z Podcast | What's in the Water at the George Church Lab?
- A "rogue effort" involving a CRISPR baby is predicted to have occurred first if bets were made 10 years ago, with government awareness limited to high-risk topics including nuclear, biological, encryption, and CRISPR technologies.
- Future precision editing is expected to supersede current CRISPR capabilities that cause gene damage, with predictions that mosaicism in pre-implantation embryos may be less severe or non-existent in final outcomes, though further data is required to confirm lower germline mosaicism.
- Ethical debates surrounding the first CRISPR babies are anticipated to initially cause a pause before triggering an acceleration in growth, as attention and funding shift toward actual clinical outcomes rather than development methods.
- Genetic diagnosis via whole genome sequencing and environmental monitoring is forecasted to be capable of preventing serious Mendelian diseases, with costs expected to drop radically if common applications like aging reversal or broad-spectrum vaccinations are developed.
- Genome sequencing costs are predicted to eventually reach $0, driving rapid adoption through encryption and communication of rare advantages, while adoption will be further propelled by anecdotes despite most individuals having blank sheets regarding actionable conditions.
- Approximately 95% to 96% of the population is expected to receive no actionable information from sequencing, whereas 1% to 4% will experience a significant impact on their lives and families.
- Security measures are anticipated to evolve with a counter-hack dynamic, utilizing methylation for age verification and immune status checks, while legal frameworks like the Genetic Information Non-Discrimination Act of 2008 are expected to address abandoned DNA and privacy concerns.
- The Personal Genome Project is expected to continue globally with high enthusiasm, and new technologies will enable projects previously on the edge of science fiction, such as editing and synthesis capabilities reaching a benchmark of 10,000 edits in a single cell.
- While a Neanderthal baby is deemed unlikely due to a lack of articulated reasons, the creation of a mammoth calf is anticipated first to enrich endangered species diversity and benefit the environment.
- First-generation cell, gene, and digital therapies are already available, with regulators showing preference for new technologies, though prevention efforts remain underfunded at 1% to 5% of budget allocations despite enormous potential payback.