Conference Presentation, Panel
Adjusting to the Tech Revolution: Surfing the Wave or Swept Away?
- Technology is expected to remain a continuum of decreasing costs and increased ease of use, guided by Moore's Law, with smartphones projected to cost $20 to $30 within three to four years and displays potentially embedded in glasses or retinas.
- The "third wave" of the internet is predicted to span the next 15 years, integrating the internet deeply into learning, health, energy, and government services, which will challenge incumbents in the healthcare sector representing one-sixth of the economy.
- Manufacturing is forecast to shift back to the United States, transitioning from a trickle to a flood over the next five to seven years as domestic costs fall below those in China due to robotics.
- New platforms are emerging, including tablet-like devices and digital currencies, while Salesforce plans to focus on running business from phones and one-to-one consumer marketing rather than the "end of software" model.
- Global competition for innovation is intensifying, with the potential for new technology hubs to develop in New Delhi, Beijing, and Zimbabwe over the next five years if the U.S. fails to enact skilled immigration reform.
- Critical risks include the potential for significant job losses in the tech revolution, market corrections due to frothy valuations, and the possibility that large companies lose their competitive edge if they prioritize minimizing downside over maximizing opportunity.
- Policy and regulatory environments pose significant challenges, with U.S. tax policies driving companies like Pfizer to consider relocation, and the need for immigrants to be released from being "held hostage" by unskilled immigration debates within the next three months.
- Healthcare costs may be reduced through technology, potentially contradicting assumptions of linear price growth, while precision medicine is expected to be advanced by new digital tools within the next 10 to 20 years.
- Organizational risks involve the loss of a "beginner's mind," leading to stagnation, and the risk of major players like Google losing revenue if their current ad-based models disappear despite their "moonshot" strategies.
- Societal concerns include the creation of a super-rich class and the uncertainty of whether human societal evolution can keep pace with the exponential advancement of technology, which could lead to widespread disruption if the U.S. stops technological change.