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Afghanistan: why the Taliban can't be defeated
- Violence levels are expected to remain enormous with no signs of slowing down in the near future.
- The Taliban are predicted to wait for foreign withdrawal if perceived pressure involves a rushed exit timeline.
- Concerns exist that a potential deal between the Trump administration and the Taliban could lead to a rapid troop reduction before lasting peace is secured.
- Personal political motivations, specifically avoiding the presence of 14,000 troops during the election cycle, are identified as drivers for accelerated withdrawal schedules.
- Projections suggest that democratic governance and girls' education may not survive beyond the period of U.S. military presence and financial support.
- Pakistan is characterized as being deeply committed to ensuring the survival of its Islamist allies, having historically helped form the Taliban in the early 1990s.
- Historical precedent indicates that large-scale counter-insurgency campaigns with heavy troop commitments have never succeeded in Afghan society recently and are unlikely to do so now.