Panel, Conference Presentation
Age-Forward 2030: The Intersection of Housing and Health Care
Milken InstituteSusan Donley, Gretchen Alkema, Bechara Choucair, Tama Duffy Day, Christopher Herbert, Susan Donnelly
- Aging populations will drive increased demand for future housing and health care, with the number of households headed by individuals over 80 rising from 7 million to 16 or 17 million over the next 20 years.
- By 2030, solutions must include affordable housing and integrated care to address needs, as 76% of adults over 50 wish to age in place and more than half of middle-income seniors may face unaffordability.
- Significant financial strain is projected for 5 million elderly households spending over 50% of income on housing, while homelessness risks are linked to increased driving cessation by age 80.
- Homeless individuals face a mortality rate 3–4 times higher, a life expectancy 27 years shorter, and hospital readmission rates 50% higher than housed peers, with stay durations extending 2–3 days longer and total care costs 3–4 times greater.
- Urban design is predicted to create life expectancy differences of up to 25 years based on neighborhood location, while future healthcare delivery will likely shift primarily to home settings.
- Regional policy trends include the elimination of single-family zoning in Oregon, Minneapolis, and California, alongside a California master plan for aging due in October 2020.
- Infrastructure investments will target affordable housing through a coalition of 24 bipartisan mayors and CEOs, supported by a flexible fund designed to prevent homelessness after one month of missed rent.
- A severe housing deficit exists in California where the required number of units is so vast that daily construction for the next 20 years would remain insufficient to meet resident needs.
- Even a 1% adoption rate of multi-generational or co-housing among older adults is expected to result in a significant increase in the number of people utilizing these living arrangements.
- Future community features by 2030 must include a cultural shift removing aging stigma, the widespread integration of the Capable model into Medicare Advantage benefits, and health concepts that embed social care networks.
- Diversity in housing types will be necessary by 2030 to accommodate a broad range of people beyond just older adults, alongside populations rethinking aging trajectories based on personal experiences.