Panel
Aging: The Next Global Investing Opportunity
- 2015 marks the demographic transition where the last Baby Boomers and first Generation X members turn 50, with the over-60 population projected to reach one billion by 2020 and persist as a growth driver for at least two to three generations.
- In the United States, 65% of Baby Boomers plan to retire after age 65 or not at all, while 67% envision shifting from full-time to part-time work, contrasting with a scenario where only one in five anticipates completely stopping work.
- Skill maintenance gaps exist as only 41% of Baby Boomers feel they are keeping skills current, with fewer than 20% engaging in networking or returning to school, creating an opportunity for continuing education providers.
- By 2033, current public policy and 20th-century workforce models are expected to become unsustainable in many countries, particularly where populations over 50 in nations like Japan, Germany, and Italy will reach 40% to 50%.
- Global aging will occur more rapidly in China, Vietnam, Thailand, Iran, and Chile compared to Europe and the United States, though the US shift will be less dramatic by the mid-century mark of 2050.
- The U.S. longevity economy is projected to generate $7.1 trillion in absolute economic activity, representing the third largest economy globally if treated as a country, surpassing Japan by over $2 trillion.
- Investment in the longevity economy, specifically healthcare and digital health for those over 50, saw funds rise from $425 million in 2013 to over $1.15 billion with deals increasing from 49 to 248.
- Over 400 companies tracking the 50+ consumer health demographic did not exist two or three years ago, and more early-stage deals in this sector are expected.
- Older adults and their consumer demand are identified as a primary driver of economic growth, with discretionary spending concentrated in the over-55 demographic globally.
- By 2033, corporations designing benefits programs for elder care are expected to gain a competitive advantage, while companies in countries with oldest populations face risks if they fail to retain aging workforces.
- Employers face opportunities to facilitate full-time to part-time transitions, with Home Instead reporting that 40% of its franchise owners are over 50 and one in three of its 65,000 caregivers are seniors.
- Discretionary spend among people over 55 is global, prompting business models to adapt, such as BMW modifying plants for older workers to reduce absenteeism and increase productivity.
- Home retrofitting is expected to increase as older people prefer aging in place, alongside innovations like driverless cars and the expansion of the "Raku Raku" mobile phone in the US.
- Dementia-friendly initiatives and "Age-Friendly Cities" programs are expected to grow in the UK and globally to support societal participation, while elder care is projected to become as critical for corporate success as child care was in the 1970s and 1980s.
- People in their 50s and 60s are expected to start companies at twice the rate of younger generations, evidenced by a graduation ceremony for 21 Baby Boomer entrepreneurs.
- If obesity remains unaddressed, entitlement and healthcare costs are expected to overwhelm the United States, while Alzheimer's poses a potential fiscal nightmare and family crisis without improved care and cures.
- A significant portion of the aging population, specifically over 55, represents a critical discretionary spend demographic globally, driving the need for creative investment in care financing.