Conference Presentation, Keynote, Lecture
Al Gore: Leading the Charge for Environmental Action
- The outlook posits an urgent, optimistic, and certain global shift toward a zero-emission future, expected to become the largest business and investment opportunity in history while aligning growth with a healthy, equitable, and safe society.
- Long-term economic conditions are projected to revert to historical norms with China and India as the dominant economies, accompanied by a digital revolution gaining momentum similar to post-2000 patterns.
- Market valuations are anticipated to shift from short-term horizons to account for natural resource depletion and inequality, with renewable energy deployment (wind and solar) growing exponentially on a declining cost curve and the investment gap versus fossil fuels widening.
- Global emissions are expected to stabilize with a recent slight decline, though rising further without accelerated net-zero action; U.S. Paris Agreement commitments are projected to hold regardless of leadership, with potential re-entry within 30 days of the 2020 election.
- Specific regional transition timelines include Norway and the Netherlands phasing out internal combustion engines by 2025, India targeting 100% electric vehicles by 2030, China selecting a near-future date for elimination, and France banning fossil fuel exploration by 2040.
- Fossil fuel asset values face potential collapse of subprime carbon assets, and fossil fuel subsidies are expected to be phased out similar to the transformation of the telephone industry.
- Physical climate risks include continued temperature increases driving severe heat days, stronger ocean storms, and an accelerated water cycle leading to intense atmospheric rivers, "rain bombs," deeper droughts, and increased fire frequency.
- Humanitarian and health consequences are predicted to include a worst disaster since 1945 with 20 million facing starvation in Africa, global food riots due to grain supply disruptions, uninhabitable conditions in parts of the Middle East and North Africa, and tropical diseases migrating to higher latitudes.
- Biodiversity threats involve the potential loss of half of all land-based species this century, with poleward species migration occurring at 4.5 meters per day, alongside rising sea levels from melting ice in Greenland and Antarctica and methane risks from thawing Siberian permafrost.