Interview, Fireside Chat, Conference Presentation, Panel, Podcast
All-In's 2026 Predictions
- Demographics & Relocation: David Sacks has officially relocated to Austin, Texas, closing on a new home in December and registering to vote; Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapiti have begun the process of visiting but have not finalized their own relocations.
- California Wealth Tax Implications: The group estimates that approximately half a trillion dollars in net worth has already exited California due to the proposed "seizure tax" (wealth tax), projecting this loss could double if the measure passes, severely impacting state budget projections and social programs.
- Asset Valuation Mechanism: Under the proposed California tax law, super-voting shares (held by founders like Larry Page and Sergey Brin) would be valued at 100% of a company's market cap rather than their actual liquid ownership stake, effectively turning a 5% wealth tax into a 25% to 50% effective tax on their net worth.
- Political Predictions (2026 Winners):
- David Sacks predicts the "Trump Boom" will be the biggest political winner, citing Q3 GDP growth of 4.3%, core CPI at 2.7%, and 2.6% inflation as evidence of a strong economic turnaround.
- Jason Calacanis predicts the "Mamdani Moment" (progressive socialism) will emerge as the primary winner, driven by Democrats shifting left to capture the youth vote and Trump's focus on foreign interventionism.
- David Friedberg predicts the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) will consolidate power within the Democratic party, mirroring the MAGA takeover of the GOP.
- Political Predictions (2026 Losers):
- Chamath Palihapiti identifies the "Monroe Doctrine" as the biggest loser, marking a definitive shift to a transactional, unilateral "Trump Doctrine" of hemispheric dominance.
- Jason Calacanis and David Sacks both identify "Democratic Centrism" as a major loser, noting that moderate incumbents are being challenged by left-wing progressives in gerrymandered safe districts.
- David Friedberg predicts the tech industry will be the biggest loser due to bipartisan populism and the erosion of the alliance between Silicon Valley and the MAGA movement.
- Business Predictions (2026 Winners):
- Chamath Palihapiti selects copper as the top asset, forecasting a 70% global supply shortage by 2040 driven by electrification, data centers, and defense needs under the Trump Doctrine.
- Jason Calacanis predicts Amazon will achieve a "corporate singularity" in 2026, deploying more robots than humans to drive earnings, citing its rapid expansion of same-day delivery hubs.
- David Sacks forecasts a reversal in IPOs, predicting a surge in public offerings from previously private tech giants like SpaceX, Stripe, Anthropic, and OpenAI.
- David Friedberg highlights Huawei for its deepening partnership with SMIC in the chip stack, and Polymarket for evolving into a primary news source and exchange.
- Business Predictions (2026 Losers):
- Chamath Palihapiti predicts the software industrial complex (SaaS) will shrink, as AI agents will disrupt the lucrative "maintenance and migration" revenue streams that currently comprise 90% of SaaS profits.
- Jason Calacanis identifies young white-collar workers as the biggest loser, as companies automate entry-level tasks and lower hiring standards for Gen Z due to perceived lack of motivation or skills.
- David Friedberg warns of state governments facing solvency crises due to the discovery of massive unfunded pension liabilities and waste.
- Deal-Making Trends:
- The panel agrees that traditional M&A will be replaced by IP licensing and revenue-sharing deals to bypass antitrust scrutiny, with predictions of a $100 billion+ transaction structured this way in 2026.
- David Friedberg predicts the Russia-Ukraine war will be resolved in 2026, leading to geopolitical stabilization.
- Jason Calacanis predicts SpaceX will not IPO but instead reverse-merge into Tesla to consolidate Elon Musk's assets.
- Chamath Palihapiti suggests central banks will eventually abandon Bitcoin and gold for a new, state-controlled cryptographic currency to hedge against quantum computing risks.
- Economic Forecasts:
- The group projects U.S. GDP growth for 2026 between 4.5% and 6%, citing a 4.9% surge in productivity, a reset in non-farm payrolls due to immigration, and the impact of tax cuts.
- David Sacks identifies the "best performing asset" as Polymarket and Robinhood, driven by increased liquidity from the economic boom and a "rate cut environment."
- Worst performing assets identified include hydrocarbons (due to irreversible electrification trends), US Dollar (due to debt expansion), and traditional media stocks (due to the rise of independent creators).
- Media & Cultural Trends:
- The panel anticipates a rise in citizen journalism and "First Amendment auditors" (content creators filming interactions with police/businesses) as a dominant media format.
- Investigative journalism is expected to flourish via decentralized platforms like Substack and YouTube, enabled by new revenue-sharing models.
- Most anticipated media: Christopher Nolan's adaptation of The Odyssey and Avengers: Doomsday (which Chamath and others view as potentially lucrative, despite Jason's skepticism of the source material).
- Podcast Milestone: The All-In podcast is projected to reach 1 million YouTube subscribers, driven by organic growth rather than call-to-action requests, with the hosts attributing success to the "super team" dynamic of the four hosts.
- Forward-Looking Disagreements:
- Nuclear Power: Jason Calacanis remains "massively short" nuclear, arguing SMRs will miss the economic window due to the declining marginal cost of solar and storage; others note the need for baseload power to meet massive energy demand growth.
- Iran: The group anticipates a revolution in Iran, but Friedberg notes the paradox that removing Iran as a stabilizer could increase regional instability among Gulf states (UAE, Saudi, Qatar).
- AI Employment: While Jason argues AI displaces entry-level talent, a listener cited a CEO survey suggesting hiring difficulties stem from a post-pandemic cultural shift in Gen Z motivation rather than pure automation.