All-In's Best Ideas Pitch Competition: 4 Investors Present Their Top Trades Live

Event Overview and Format

• The event, "The Best Ideas Pitch," replicates the Ira Sohn investment conference format, focusing on high-conviction investment theses from managers not typically featured on mainstream financial media.
• The session featured four presenters: Aaron Cowan (MGM Resorts), Dan Dreyfuss (Talon Energy), Oleg Nodelman (Actis Oncology), and Kyle Simani (GeoNet).
• The format included live pitches followed by a Q&A session and a dual voting mechanism: an audience vote and a panel vote by Gavin (Gavin), Chamath, and the host.
• Final Results: MGM Resorts (Aaron Cowan) won both the audience and panel votes with 50% of the votes, followed by Talon Energy (Dan Dreyfuss) in second place.

Investment Thesis: MGM Resorts (Aaron Cowan)

• Current Catalyst: Barry Diller owns 26% of MGM and has made a hostile bid to acquire the company at $48 per share, up from ~$37 when the thesis was drafted.
• Hidden Asset 1 (Japan): MGM holds a license to open a casino in Osaka, Japan, approved in 2023 and scheduled to open in 2030.
  • The Osaka market is estimated at $40 billion in EBITDA, significantly larger than Macau ($30B) or Las Vegas ($10B).
  • The presenter estimates the Japanese asset alone is worth ~$50 per share in equity value.
• Hidden Asset 2 (Dubai): MGM is constructing a complex in Dubai with 300,000 square feet of undeveloped space reserved specifically for a future casino, anticipating potential legalization.
  • If legalized, this asset is valued at an additional $40–$50 per share.
• Valuation Model: The presenter sums the Las Vegas assets ($60), the Japan option ($50), and the Dubai option ($40–$50) to project a fair value of $100–$150 per share, representing a potential 3x return from current levels.
• Strategic Rationale: Diller is characterized as a financial buyer seeking the Japanese opportunity rather than a strategic buyer seeking current operations.
• Risk Factors: The primary risk is the outcome of the hostile bid and the regulatory timeline for the Osaka and Dubai projects.

Investment Thesis: Talon Energy (Dan Dreyfuss)

• Macro Thesis: The presenter argues that a new "power cycle" is beginning, driven by technological breakthroughs (AI, robotics) rather than just GDP growth, creating a 20-year demand spike.
  • US power generation capacity is currently one-third of China's, creating a mandatory rebuild to maintain competitiveness and national security.
• Company Specifics: Talon Energy owns 2 gigawatts of nuclear power and 6 gigawatts of natural gas baseload power.
  • The company trades at a $25 billion enterprise value, which is below the $45 billion replacement cost of its assets.
• Financial Scenarios:
  • Base Case: Maintaining current operations yields ~$50/share free cash flow, valuing the stock at ~$700 (trading at ~7x FCF vs. a 15x sector average).
  • Upside Case: Securing premium data center contracts or building new capacity could push free cash flow to $100/share, implying a valuation of $1,050+.
• Market Dynamics: Hyperscalers (e.g., Microsoft) are paying double-market rates ($100/MWh vs. $50/MWh) to secure power, signaling extreme supply tightness in regions like PJM.
• Regulatory Risks: Potential government intervention to cap electricity prices or prioritize residential heating over industrial data centers; mitigated by the argument that power demand is inelastic and "human ingenuity" will force new capacity.
• Competitive Landscape: The presenter notes that while fuel cells and gas turbines serve as bridge solutions, they have high operating costs; nuclear and baseload gas remain essential for 50 billion data center builds.

Investment Thesis: Actis Oncology (Oleg Nodelman)

• Company Profile: A biotech firm (ticker AKTS) with a $500 million enterprise value and a cash runway of over three years.
• Core Technology: A "mini-protein" platform delivering radioactive payloads (radioisotopes) with molecular precision to tumors (100-micron blast radius).
  • The platform allows for imaging confirmation of target engagement early in clinical trials, de-risking development.
• Clinical Pipeline:
  • Nectin-4: Targeting bladder cancer; initial data expected Q1 2027.
  • B7H3: Targeting prostate, colorectal, and lung cancers; initial data expected 2027.
• Commercial Moat: Radioisotopes (specifically Actinium) are scarce and difficult to manufacture; Actinium is a byproduct of US nuclear programs, creating a barrier to entry for Chinese competitors who lack this specific supply chain.
• Valuation: The presenter triangulates a potential value of $10–$20 billion ($200/share) if one program succeeds, offering a platform valuation rather than single-drug valuation.
• Strategic Interest: Major pharma (Eli Lilly, Novartis, Bayer) has spent $15 billion on radiotherapy M&A, indicating high industry demand for these assets.
• Risk Factors: Binary clinical outcomes, potential for new competing modalities (e.g., D-proteins), and the "lottery ticket" nature of early-stage biotech valuations.

Investment Thesis: GeoNet (Kyle Simani)

• Technology: A decentralized Real-Time Kinematics (RTK) network providing centimeter-level geolocation precision (100x accuracy over standard GPS).
• Network Scale: Over 22,000 base stations in 150 countries, covering 80% of the global population; twice the size of competitors (Trimble, Hexagon, Topcon) combined.
• Business Model:
  • Decentralized Deployment: Base stations are owned by individuals/hobbyists, paid in tokens (GEOD), creating a low-cost infrastructure model.
  • Capital Return: 80% of revenue ($8.8 million annually at $11 million ARR) is used to buy back and burn tokens on the open market.
• Use Cases: Autonomous robots (farmers), John Deere's "GUS" spraying system, DJI drones, and robotic lawnmowers.
  • Customers typically triple their spend year-over-year after adoption.
• Financials: Trading at ~$150 million fully diluted; projected to grow >3x annually.
• Competitive Advantage: High network effects and low cost structure compared to satellite alternatives (e.g., SpaceX microsats) which face higher energy consumption and capital barriers for ground-level precision.
• Regulatory Outlook: The presenter expresses optimism regarding the U.S. "Clarity Act" for crypto, stating the token likely complies with current securities laws.

Panelist Feedback and Rankings

• Gavin (Gavin's Rank):
  1. MGM: Best risk/reward due to the Barry Diller bid cap and high-value hidden options (Japan/Dubai).
  2. Talon: Compelling long-term thesis but sensitive to interest rates and regulatory intervention.
  3. Tie: Actis and GeoNet viewed as "lottery tickets" with higher idiosyncratic risk but massive upside potential.
• Chamath (Chamath's Rank):
  1. MGM: Strongest downside protection and timeline.
  2. Talon: Strong fundamentals but longer timeline (8 years) and interest rate sensitivity.
  3. Actis: Compelling platform risk but significant downside if clinical trials fail or China replicates the technology.
  4. GeoNet: Skeptical of the crypto space ("snowboarding") and believes satellite alternatives (LEO/MEO) will eventually replace RTK.
• Panelist Buy Action: Chamath disclosed real-time purchasing of Actis ($50k) and MGM, noting a 7% portfolio gain immediately following the pitches.

Audience and Panel Voting Results

• Audience Vote: MGM (50%) > Talon (24%) > Actis (21%) > GeoNet (5%).
• Panel Vote: MGM (50%) > Talon (24%) > Actis (21%) > GeoNet (5%).
• Winner: MGM Resorts (Aaron Cowan) received the "Extremely Alpha Male Heterosexual Award" (a humorous, uncomfortable hugging trophy) for the best pitch.