Panel
Amber Waves of Greatness: Promoting Prosperity in Middle America
Milken InstituteGillian Tett, Steve Bullock, Steven Rattner, Rick Snyder, Lawrence H. Summers, Devin Wenig, Larry Summers
- Economic growth is projected to rebound nationally, though the recovery is expected to remain uneven, with Middle America lagging behind coastal regions and high-growth sectors while the national average masks significant geographical divergence.
- The labor market faces a structural divergence between a high volume of job openings (peaking near 6 million) and a shortage of skilled, trained workers, driven by a lack of post-secondary education access and a decline in manufacturing wages that has reduced the abundance of traditional middle-class jobs.
- Public finances are constrained by revenue shortfalls and a sharp decline in government investment as a percentage of GDP, creating fiscal pressure that limits the capacity for state and federal spending on job training, business development, and infrastructure maintenance.
- Technological advancement is identified as a critical competitive factor, with projections that the U.S. risks falling behind globally if it fails to implement mandatory K-12 computer science education and organize a digital economy, particularly as 75% of venture funding and 70% of the sharing economy remain concentrated in three coastal states.
- Infrastructure deficits are anticipated to worsen without increased investment in both physical assets, such as roads and highways, and digital connectivity, which are viewed as essential for enabling rural businesses to access global markets and for supporting future job creation.
- Policy recommendations include the adoption of targeted, place-based strategies to address regional employment disparities rather than attempting to make every region replicate high-growth hubs, with specific plans like a five-year, $100 million "Marshall Plan for Talent" in Michigan and expectations of continued private sector collaboration on workforce pipelines.
- Trade outlooks warn of potential "trade wars" and economic anxiety if agreements like NAFTA are not updated to address modern issues like intellectual property, while noting that protectionist approaches historically failed to sustain middle-class lifestyles and that the manufacturing workforce share of 5% is unlikely to return to previous levels.
- Demographic and economic risks include a downward trend in life expectancy for middle-class men, the potential for out-migration to trigger a negative cycle of falling housing prices and reduced spending in struggling communities, and the constraint that 75% of the 2030 labor force is already present, limiting the efficacy of education-only policies.
- Regional economic expectations vary by sector, with Michigan projected to rank sixth for private sector job creation and first for manufacturing job growth over a seven-year period due to the convergence of autonomous and connected vehicle technologies, while Montana aims to maintain a top-four ranking for startup activities despite connectivity challenges.