Panel, Fireside Chat
American Politics 2013
Milken InstituteMajor Garrett, Senator Warner, Senator Moran, Congresswoman Morris-Rogers, Senator Casey
- Implementation of the health care law is expected to encounter glitches and bumps, though Senator Warner considers it premature to determine if problems will exceed this scope, while Senator Moran predicts public focus will shift toward more onerous aspects of the Affordable Care Act as the next political season approaches.
- Medicare cost increases are projected to have declined dramatically over the last three years, with CBO estimates indicating savings of approximately $500 billion over a 10-year period since 2010, yet concerns remain regarding a potential shortage of physicians accepting reimbursement rates and the pre-existing condition high-risk pool reaching maximum capacity.
- Political and implementation risks include the administration missing specific dates and deadlines, creating uncertainty for businesses, while Senator Moran warns that modest attempts to fix the legislation could cause the bill to fail due to the diversity of opinions and opposition to any changes.
- Health care reform is anticipated to be a significant election topic, potentially surfacing in 2014 due to current uncertainty, with Senator Casey noting the broader economy may dominate the 2016 election while the law remains a problem.
- October 1st is identified as a critical deadline for health care exchanges, with projections stating that currently only one-third of states are moving forward, one-third are refusing, and one-third are awaiting federal guidance, potentially leading to issues throughout the year leading up to the election.
- The immigration reform process involves significant uncertainty, with Senator Warner expecting a failure to secure 70 votes would be an embarrassment, while Congresswoman Morris-Rogers notes a House commitment to begin work on a guest worker program in the first week of May and the possibility of a piecemeal approach to achieve a comprehensive package by July.
- Spending and sequestration outlooks include a prediction that the House approach will reduce discretionary spending from 16% of the budget to about 4% over 15 years, while Senator Moran states that reducing the budget by $85 billion is doable but argues against across-the-board cuts without administrative flexibility.
- Gun control legislation is expected to return to the forefront, with Senator Warner and others anticipating public demand for background checks after Newtown, potentially creating a force for reasonable restrictions in 2014 that exceeds opposition parity.
- Future election dynamics in 2014 and beyond will be shaped by demographic shifts and the rise of social media, with Senator Casey predicting that by 2016 or 2020, digital media like Twitter and Facebook will surpass television ads, as the number of Americans not watching live network or cable television increases.
- Ideological sorting in Congress is projected to continue intensifying, with data indicating a shift from 57 senators and 353 house members in the ideological continuum in 1982 to only seven House members and no Senators in that spectrum by 2010.