Conference Presentation, Panel
American Politics: The 114th Congress and 2016 Presidential Election
- The 18th annual Milken Institute Global Conference is projected to host over 700 speakers across 130 public panels and nearly 100 private sessions with venue capacity reached, necessitating early arrival for specific sessions like the 10:45 AM panel due to the international ballroom being unavailable for lunch setup.
- Marco Rubio and Scott Walker are identified as having the highest potential to become formidable candidates, with Rubio specifically noted as the superior communicator and Walker having positive-to-negative feedback ratios that may overcome lower name recognition, while Jeb Bush is predicted to struggle if voters prioritize "fresh, new, different, inspirational" qualities.
- The 2016 election is forecasted to be a close race, potentially 50-50 with a scenario where Democrats win the Electoral College despite a Republican popular vote lead, with victory likely contingent on addressing income inequality, national security, and the "working poor," particularly in battleground states like Florida, Virginia, and Ohio.
- Significant risks include the potential for low voter turnout, the "Black Lives Matter" movement influencing elite discourse, and the Supreme Court's intervention in marriage equality, which could alienate Republicans among 18-to-29-year-olds and poison the debate if a federal view is imposed.
- Political dynamics are expected to shift toward bipartisanship and efficiency due to high hostility toward Washington, with a focus on criminal justice reform to address the issue of 1/4 of the world's incarcerated population being in the U.S. and the need to rescue "genius" from the current system.
- Strategic challenges involve candidates needing to appear authentic rather than reading speeches, as formal attire and "gauzy slogans" create distance with a demographic that no longer dresses like CEOs; additionally, digital tools are seen as an equalizer allowing campaigns to succeed even when outspent three to one.
- The Democratic Party faces internal debates regarding base priorities, with a "pro-life pro-gay marriage" segment growing, and the possibility of a progressive grassroots surge for Elizabeth Warren if Hillary Clinton falters, while the economy is expected to see voters "rewarming" to Obama for the first time.