Interview, Fireside Chat, Conference Presentation
Amory Lovins, Rocky Mountain Institute Co-founder: Talks@GS Session Highlights
- The efficiency and renewables enterprise is projected to remain a growing sector valued at over $600 billion annually.
- A synthesis of energy solutions for China is scheduled for release within two months.
- By 2050, the U.S. economy could expand 2.6-fold without oil, coal, or nuclear energy, while reducing natural gas usage by one-third, tripling efficiency, and quintupling renewables.
- The electric system is anticipated to reach 80% renewable generation, with half of capacity being distributed and highly resilient by 2050, while the total energy system is expected to be approximately 75% renewable.
- The net present value cost of this transition is estimated to be $5 trillion cheaper than business as usual if externalities are valued at zero.
- Necessary policy innovations are expected to be achievable through federal administrative decisions and state-level actions.
- Photovoltaics are predicted to outperform solar thermal electric generation, with solar thermal finding niche applications in process heat and cogeneration.
- Advanced biofuel technologies are considered promising and are currently in pilot or scale-up stages, with some already included in the Navy's operational procurement, whereas current volume biofuels are deemed less interesting.
- Biologically informed agriculture and forestry are expected to become necessary to prevent soil degradation.
- The notion that photovoltaics and wind variability limit renewable deployment is expected to be disproven empirically and analytically.
- Rapid learning in battery technology driven by consumer electronics and electric vehicles is anticipated, potentially enabling grid independence in locations like Hawaii.
- A clash between 21st-century technological speed and 20th- and 19th-century institutions is expected, with electricity remaining the primary area for disruptive change.
- Customers are expected to shift toward purchasing fewer electrons for greater productivity and self-generation, with real-time and time-of-use pricing serving as obvious solutions for behavioral change.
- Locational pricing is predicted to face political challenges but is expected to have fair implementation methods, potentially utilizing maps of congested distribution hotspots to offer premiums for demand management efficiency.
- Demand response is forecasted to evolve into an invisible IT mashup, while LED technology is expected to become 30 times more efficient, 20 times brighter, and 10 times cheaper every decade.
- U.S. electric demand has been falling since 2007, and existing business models that penalize customer efficiency are expected to be corrected as providers sell desired outcomes rather than just electrons.
- The sharing economy and IT energy mashups are predicted to be deeply disruptive to automotive and electricity sectors, accelerating electrification and battery adoption through improved platform fitness and autonomy.
- New efficiency rules based on weight rather than size are expected to incentivize vehicle lightweighting, with the industry potentially beating CAFE standards by a factor of 2 to 4 through demand pull.
- Consumers are expected to prefer vehicles achieving 1 to 2 liters per 100 kilometers, with 4 to 7 automakers already adopting lightweighting strategies after a decade-long adoption curve.
- The auto industry is expected to change beyond recognition over the next 15 years.
- Buildings are anticipated to require no heating or cooling through passive designs within 5 to 15 years, becoming energy producers capable of supplying more power than they consume; these designs are already targets for the EU, California, and the Army Corps of Engineers.
- Urban integration of living, working, and recreational areas is expected to reduce physical travel, leading to fewer car ownerships as ubiquitous transport services accessed via advanced smartphone apps become cheaper and easier options.
- Appliances are expected to become more efficient, perform better, and cost less, while ubiquitous communications driven by Moore's Law will support virtual mobility by moving electrons instead of physical bodies.
- Risks to the electric grid include cyber attacks, physical attacks, EMPs, earthquakes, cyber storms, and super storms, which could cause extreme societal disruption.
- A diverse, distributed, renewable, and highly resilient system is envisioned where major failures are impossible by design, potentially allowing society to focus on higher-value human pursuits.