Interview, Fireside Chat
An assassination attempt: what next for America?
- Experts anticipate the assassination attempt will propel the campaign into a darker direction, creating a defining image of Trump raising his fist that could dominate discourse for years, while a successful killing would have thrown the Republican ticket into disarray and forced a convention to function as both a funeral and a successor selection.
- A temporary suspension of attacks is expected to last for a "few days," after which campaigning is predicted to resume with its previous negative tenor, though political rhetoric may see a brief period of lowered temperature and increased introspection regarding military metaphors.
- Poll effects are projected to be transient, likely dissipating and returning to prior levels within "a few months" similar to the 2016 Access Hollywood tape, with sympathy for Trump expected to rise in the coming weeks without converting potential Democratic voters.
- The Republican party is forecast to unite completely behind Trump with dissent effectively ending, while calls blaming President Biden for the shooting are predicted to increase over the next few days and a potential rebellion against Biden will lose momentum.
- The Democratic National Convention could formally nominate Joe Biden as early as August 7th, while Biden faces scrutiny regarding perceived fitness for office and minor gaffes, though he has called for a step back from violence.
- Both sides face a heightened danger of serious unrest and a real fear that violence could break out again, despite some efforts to cool tensions and a Republican convention that is expected to be distinct due to the attack.
- Trump is planning to rewrite his upcoming speech to call for national unity, presenting a significant political opportunity to appear strong and address doubters, while some politicians have already begun fanning conspiracy theories despite calls for restraint.