Interview, Fireside Chat, Podcast
Anthropic’s $30B Ramp, Mythos Doomsday, OpenClaw Ankled, Iran War Ceasefire, Israel's Influence
- Anticipates 10,000 PRs to core internet infrastructure within 100 days, though labeled "meaningless," while noting the threat of browser history leaks could trigger specific release incidents.
- Foresees Anthropic's "Mythos" and OpenAI's "Spud" (the first Blackwell-trained model) launching imminently, with OpenAI and Google eventually adopting Anthropic-style safety sandboxing.
- Projects a six-month period of AI-driven cyber defense "catching up" to detect dormant bugs, characterizing the current state as "DefCon" but unlikely to result in a doomsday scenario if companies react correctly.
- Predicts Chinese open-source models like "Kimi K2" lag approximately six months behind frontier models, yet expects them to capture 90% of token usage and eventually undercut the frontier model space.
- Estimates the AI-generated code ratio will rise from 5% to 95% over the next few years, though predicts zero probability of major companies outsourcing production code to open source.
- Outlines a revenue trajectory where Anthropic exits the year at $80–100 billion, OpenAI sees imminent revenue inflection, and inference costs drop 90% year-over-year.
- Projects OpenAI will build a "very big company" and anticipates IPOs for SpaceX (95% probability) and Cerebras (94% probability) before 2027, with Anthropic (51% chance) and OpenAI (44% chance) going public before year-end.
- Warns that a "big arms race" between AI cyber offense and defense will result in a "more normal" period, with capitalism and funding needs superseding security concerns long-term.
- Predicts massive consolidation in the coding token market and a flywheel effect where the early leader gains access to the most training tokens and existing code.
- Foresees SLMs running on high-end consumer devices soon and expects open-source projects to gain hold within startups over the next few years.
- Identifies companies like Meta, Google, and SpaceX as having "fortress balance sheets" by end of June, noting they are only 1.5–2 gigawatts away from unlocking faster growth.
- Anticipates an explosion of value at the application, model, and chip layers, with millions of self-interested parties driving adoption and a TAM for intelligence radically larger than any previously seen.
- Notes that while unit costs of intelligence are plummeting, token costs may not drop, yet predicts a "massive payoff" for the tech sector despite huge CapEx.
- Predicts the market is undervaluing enterprise software companies and expects the Iran and Ukraine issues to be resolved before America 250 on July 4th, creating upside risk.
- Foresees a massive transformation of Gulf states and Iran potentially coming "into the fold," with Israel seeking an "off-ramp" to maintain US ally status.
- Projects the X auto-translate feature to have a profound cross-border effect and predicts paid-only tweet responses will contain current chaos on the platform.
- States that IT departments and CISOs must immediately take security seriously to patch dormant bugs, as shutting down the internet to fix all vulnerabilities would require "literally years."
- Believes the current chaos on X will be managed by restricting bot responses to paid subscribers and expects "Nikita Beer" to aggressively target bot accounts.