Interview
Arrivals haul: anti-tourism’s folly
- Global international arrivals are projected to reach approximately 1.5 billion this year, surpassing 2019 levels due to economic strength and a strong US dollar, with Greece, Spain, and Portugal expected to sustain growth of 2% or more.
- Tourism's economic contribution is forecast to rise by one-third in Saudi Arabia this year, while in Albania, the sector's share of economic activity is anticipated to increase from one-fifth five years ago to one-quarter.
- Regulatory measures include Greece capping cruise ship arrivals by 2025, while the Maldives expects a 10% tax hike to reduce arrivals by roughly 5.4%; Venice is testing a five-euro day-tripper fee to encourage overnight stays, and Barcelona anticipates spending shifting to other sectors rather than increasing total receipts.
- Copenhagen plans to incentivize public transport use with free meals and museum passes, while local officials in Spain and Italy are expected to invest tourism receipts in capital goods like trains and hotels, and Mexico anticipates a positive link between manufacturing and tourism-driven capital investment.
- Rising tourism is expected to drive higher wages and housing supply adjustments in affected regions, alongside a general expectation that policymakers will manage growth to benefit both residents and visitors.
- In the ongoing conflict, daily Russian casualties in May and June are estimated at approximately 1,200 killed or wounded, with casualty ratios varying between insider estimates of 1:6 (Ukrainian to Russian) and lower Western assessments.
- The Kremlin aims to avoid further major conscription waves following the 2022 mobilization, instead pursuing recruitment of 30,000 to 40,000 monthly contract soldiers through targeted messaging, with projections that attrition rates can be sustained until the end of 2025.
- HMD is expected to continue selling tens of thousands of Nokia phones monthly in the US, driven by growing demand for feature phones evidenced by product re-releases in Europe, while UK schools plan to issue such devices to new pupils in autumn following smartphone bans.
- Consumer trends indicate a segment is expected to restrict smartphone usage by removing apps or using external devices requiring physical unlocking, seeking to regain control over time and attention as digital integration deepens.