Conference Presentation, Panel
Asia Rising: A New Competitive Landscape
- Japanese stock and real estate markets are projected to maintain upward momentum with corporate earnings expected to rise approximately 30%, while the venture capital firm plans to source 60% to 70% of current fund capital from Japanese investors, a shift from the previous 10% to 20% range.
- Japan aims to have women hold 30% of leadership roles by 2020, with hopes for work law liberalization after a July election to facilitate firing and reduce temporary worker reliance, alongside potential constitutional changes regarding self-defense and territorial defense.
- A risk exists that rising Japanese interest rates could impose a strong burden on the economy, and there is uncertainty regarding China's future entry into the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which faces complexity risks that may stall progress.
- ASEAN markets are projected to evolve into non-tariff zones within the next couple of years, receiving capital flow diverted from direct investment in China, with production migrating to the region's most stable operational countries.
- A "worst of first phenomena" is anticipated where the strongest performing markets from the previous year face severe underperformance over the next two years.
- Indonesia is projected to face a workforce exit exceeding entry by 20 to 30 years, while inflation in Vietnam is noted to have decreased to 6% after a period of high double-digit levels.
- Japan is expected to pursue a policy of opening to China while strengthening ties with Russia, South Korea, Australia, the United States, ASEAN, and India, accompanied by a strategic mindset shift among business leaders toward "ex-China Asia" or "China plus one" strategies in locations like Bangladesh or India.
- The 21st century is predicted to become the Asia-Pacific century with significant US involvement through infrastructure and poverty-fighting initiatives via the Asian Development Bank, while the US rebalances toward Asia through educational, business, and cultural outreach.
- Investment strategies are expected to broaden beyond China and Japan to diverse Asian nations, requiring rigorous company-level due diligence rather than country-level momentum chasing, with the Philippines, Thailand, and others expected to build economies independently of West-China tensions.
- Hong Kong's capital market is expected to remain dominant for at least ten years, though its proximity to China poses a potential weakness if central government interventions increase, potentially granting Singapore a competitive advantage in private wealth management.
- A five- to ten-year window following the formation of a new Chinese administration is expected to feature political reform, with optimism for increased openness and dialogue in the second half, while local-level liberalization may continue despite strict national control.
- The global middle class is projected to grow by 3 billion people over the next 20 years to reach 4.85 billion, with 90% of this growth centered in Asia.
- China and India are projected to import between 15% and 20% of their food by 2020, while China's passenger car fleet is expected to expand from 58 million to 450 million by 2030.
- By 2030, global water demand is projected to reach 6.9 trillion cubic meters, primary energy demand growth is expected to be 166 QBTU (60% in China and India), and 66 gigatons of CO2 may be emitted, potentially raising temperatures by 4.5 to 5 degrees centigrade.
- The IPCC Committee on Climate Change has stated that Himalayan glaciers are likely to melt by 2035, creating long-term environmental risks alongside hopes for transparent military spending and governments prioritizing citizen welfare over domestic political posturing.