Interview, Fireside Chat, Conference Presentation
Asia Summit 2014 - A Conversation with Robert Zoellick: U.S. Rebalancing Toward Asia
Milken InstituteRobert Zoellick, Chan Heng-Chi, Manraj Sekh, Jared Carney Lightdale, Kevin Chen, Yanqing
- A fragmentation of the United Kingdom and subsequent Scottish independence are anticipated to diminish British power and potentially trigger broader insular movements across Europe.
- ISIS is forecast to destabilize regional monarchies such as Jordan and evolve into a global threat capable of attacking Europe and the United States, requiring a shift from air power to determining ground forces.
- While U.S. forces are unlikely to serve as primary ground troops due to public fatigue from 11 years of war, the United States is expected to support Kurdish forces and encourage Gulf states to deploy their own ground armies despite risks of strengthening Iran and Assad.
- Structural reforms in the United States, including tax and entitlement changes, are projected to face significant delays and remain a major issue for the next election due to the Obama administration's waning political momentum.
- China is expected to pursue a significantly larger role in Asia and the world, challenging the current order with a new system that Japan and regional nations will reject if based on tributary or hegemonic relationships.
- The World Trade Organization system is predicted to be unsustainable in its current form requiring 150 countries to agree on 500 topics, necessitating a shift to smaller coalitions of 50 to 100 nations for specific agreements.
- The United States aims to complete Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and transatlantic trade negotiations while managing relationships with China and India, though uncertainty exists regarding the administration's political will to close these deals.
- Support is recommended for China's reform process through bilateral investment treaties and service sector negotiations to prevent a middle-income trap, though uncertainties regarding anti-corruption campaigns and the rule of law remain.
- Japan's structural reforms and India's execution plans are expected to benefit from U.S. engagement linked to the TPP agenda and trade promotion authority negotiations with a supportive Republican Congress.
- Mexico's energy reforms are projected to take four to five years to yield benefits, though expanding the electrical grid in the southwest offers immediate returns, with China contributing to a special multilateral investment fund rather than a bilateral one.
- The global order is described as sleepwalking toward new conflict due to the absence of American leadership, creating fragmentation where rising powers must assume greater responsibility for maintaining stability.
- Risks include the potential for a "victory for Assad and Iran" if Gulf states act alone, the bogging down of the system by Chinese uncertainties, and the inability to resolve complex geopolitical issues without sustained political will.
- The World Bank is expected to require U.S. nationals to head the organization to maintain domestic congressional and public support, reflecting the legacy of a vote restructuring that made China its biggest beneficiary.