Conference Presentation, Panel
Asia Summit 2014 - Prosperity and Risk in the Asia Pacific
Milken InstituteWayne, Tommy Koh, Victor Chu, Takeshi Niiname, Arfin Serega, S.S. Teo, Manu Bhaskaran, Sui Ling Chia, Peter Wayman
- Asia is projected to be the century's primary growth driver, potentially achieving rates double that of global and OECD averages, though a 10% "breakneck" pace is considered unlikely.
- China's GDP is expected to double from 2010 levels by 2020, with growth normalizing around 7% and a hard landing viewed as relatively low risk, while the "China-ASEAN trade target" aims to rise from $4.3–430 billion to $1 trillion by the end of this decade.
- China's long-term strategy will prioritize urbanization, working conditions, and food safety, with policy execution expected to accelerate within six to nine months following a political storm, and faster implementation anticipated in the next few years after the October Communist Party meeting.
- Japan is forecast to emerge from two decades of deflation with growth reaching 1.5% to 2% in the coming two years, driven by a "third arrow" of Abenomics taking effect in two to three years and continued industry consolidation under Prime Minister Abe's anticipated five-year tenure through the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.
- Indonesia's development is expected to improve under the Jokowi-Kalla administration, with private sector preference rising among youth and leadership tasked with addressing infrastructure, education, and healthcare, though oil and gas production faces decline risks without increased exploration.
- The ASEAN Economic Community aims to become a single economy production platform by December 31, 2015, with a zero-tax target achievable by the target year, supported by a transition to younger leadership to overcome historical baggage.
- Structural reforms across the region require strong leadership to manage populism, income disparity, corruption, and the need for emerging economies to avoid the "Middle Income Trap" by innovating up the value chain.
- Geopolitical stability is deemed a critical prerequisite for economic progress, with risks including US-China relations, potential conflicts between Japan and China, and specific fears of escalation between China and Vietnam over the Paracel Islands or the US and the Philippines.
- Territorial disputes are anticipated to result in "win-loss" scenarios if submitted to arbitration, whereas joint development or conciliation is viewed as the only path to "win-win" outcomes.
- External economic shifts include the expected return of high-energy US industries due to the shale gas revolution, a reduction in US crude imports, and the potential for China to join TPP negotiations if US-China dialogue persists.
- Major infrastructure initiatives like the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road are viewed as long-term projects spanning a decade to a century, while the ability to resolve wealth gaps remains a key expectation for Asian nations.
- The Asian economy is expected to rely increasingly on a middle-class market of over one billion people rather than traditional low-cost manufacturing, although regional peace is essential to avoid making economic endeavors "much more difficult."