Lecture, Conference Presentation, Statement
Aubrey de Grey: "The cost effectiveness of anti-aging research"
- A future seminar on wild animal suffering is scheduled for the evening of the ninth week.
- Anti-aging research is projected to transform society by extending lifespans to ten times their current duration, reducing death-related suffering, and facilitating greater knowledge acquisition.
- Significant advancements in anti-aging could render it one of the most cost-effective uses of societal resources due to astronomical savings from prevented end-of-life care costs.
- Aubrey de Grey predicts substantial progress in aging research, anticipating a 50-50 chance of developing seven specific maintenance technologies within 25 years and at least a 10% chance of success within 100 years.
- The speaker rejects the "geriatrics approach" of treating age-related diseases as they arise as hopeless and views the "gerontology approach" of merely slowing damage accumulation as insufficient with current knowledge.
- A proposed "maintenance approach" aims to periodically repair biological damage to uncouple metabolism from pathology, replacing current strategies to achieve robust human rejuvenation.
- Therapies expected in the next few decades are projected to fix "easy damage," likely adding approximately 30 years to the lives of middle-aged recipients without providing indefinite longevity immediately.
- Achieving longevity escape velocity through rapid repair improvements is expected to yield health impacts identical to 100% effective repairs, keeping beneficiaries biologically young absent external trauma.
- Global population growth is anticipated to be naturally curtailed by declining fertility rates linked to female education, with a predicted UN decline mid-century, though fixing menopause may delay childbirth and alter these trajectories.
- Technologies such as nuclear fusion are expected to develop within 50 years to increase Earth's carrying capacity and mitigate overpopulation concerns arising from extended lifespans.
- Initial anti-aging treatments are predicted to be costly but will decrease in price as technology matures, eventually becoming economically unsustainable to withhold due to healthcare savings.
- Molecular manufacturing is expected to serve medical applications in a later stage, following the current development of biological maintenance approaches.
- Molecular garbage elimination is advancing, with current work showing enzymes derived from bacteria improving the viability of human cells containing toxic substances like 7-ketogelesterol.
- Preliminary data on enzyme work is planned for publication soon, and clinical trials in mice demonstrating radical life extension are expected to secure future funding.
- Public opinion requires significant change for governments and private sectors to provide adequate funding, while a moral obligation exists for the current generation to develop therapies to preserve future choice.
- The first person to live to a thousand is not expected to be much younger than the first to reach 150, as the primary challenge is reaching longevity escape velocity rather than the subsequent years of life.
- Risks from non-natural causes are anticipated to be reduced by technology as the value of life increases, potentially diminishing the fear of accidents like being hit by a bus.