Fireside Chat, Statement, Conference Presentation
Ben Horowitz on the Global Race for Tech, Power, and Influence
- AI models are projected to become the universal interface for future systems ranging from consumer appliances to vehicles, while the transition from pre-AI code (with a 20-year legacy) to AI-compatible security standards is expected to be a difficult process spanning the next two decades.
- Deterrence strategies are predicted to shift from military size to the pace of innovation and real-time reaction capabilities, specifically to counter cheap, software-built technologies developed by the private sector and utilized by adversaries including states, criminal groups, and terrorist organizations.
- Startup companies are expected to internationalize significantly earlier in their lifecycle, often before reaching hundreds of millions in revenue, driven by AI localization tools that ease market adaptation and reduce the typical "$5 to $10 million" cost barrier for initial market entry.
- The firm plans to prioritize "top-heavy" economies and strong U.S. allies—including Japan, Korea, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Mexico, and Australia—by focusing on "real global companies" merging into international entities rather than standalone local startups, aiming to plug gaps in growth capital and expertise.
- Strategic partnerships are intended to accelerate opportunities in specific regions by leveraging existing networks to introduce portfolio companies to government and business buyers, with a specific focus on helping Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and Japan modernize their economies, supply chains, and military capabilities through private sector collaboration.
- The outlook predicts a shift in industry responsibility where the cost of ignoring insecure code rises while the cost of fixing it falls, necessitating new software development processes that incorporate AI to identify vulnerabilities during creation and secure systems against an attack surface where AI allows attackers to "jiggle every doorknob" at scale.
- National security concerns, such as fentanyl smuggling via Mexico and military pressure from China in the Indo-Pacific, are expected to drive the adoption of autonomous ships, AI-driven coastal defense, and a rebuild of allied military industrial bases through partnerships with new tech firms.
- The firm intends to project American values and free speech through trusted, uncensored AI models while navigating the complexities of open versus closed source, contrasting these approaches with authoritarian models that embed different cultural and political values.
- Success in non-U.S. regions is expected to face significant barriers beyond capital, specifically the lack of a specific combination of favorable laws and a social culture that rewards entrepreneurship, which is described as the hardest component to replicate compared to the U.S. ecosystem.
- The global supply chain for chips and critical components is expected to remain a foundational issue of national power and economic security, with countries increasingly demanding the latest AI model versions due to competitive pressures on their national interests.