Panel, Conference Presentation
Beyond Capital: How Long-Term Investors are Creating Value | Global Dialogues Toronto 2026
- The organizational investment landscape is shifting from initial AI adoption toward governance and a subsequent phase where success depends on identifying specific sectors that leverage technology while leaving competitors behind.
- Business longevity is projected to decline to an average of 15 years, a reduction from 30 to 40 years per generation, driven by rapid innovation cycles in areas such as 3D printing and rapid construction.
- Investment firms are integrating equity, fixed income, and multi-asset capabilities into unified research teams to manage the complexity of dynamic issues that single analysts cannot comprehend.
- AI is expected to transform asset management, particularly in illiquid credit books where it enables early problem flagging and access to historic data, though investors are cautioned to maintain short durations to avoid mismatched investment profiles.
- While there is a massive capital need for AI, credit investors are warned that high upside potential does not guarantee compensation for risk, and enterprise software AI risks may manifest primarily in equity multiples rather than credit performance.
- Investment strategies must now account for the timing of AI's impact on specific sectors, balancing this "story" against other technologies like gene editing and the current "picks and shovels" phase with future implementation phases.
- Regulatory frameworks, geopolitical shifts, and the transition from globalization to deglobalization and nearshoring are anticipated to significantly influence the success of AI build-outs across different sovereigns.
- A convergence of technological, geopolitical, and climate ruptures is creating a challenging environment for capital access, though these factors are viewed as presenting a specific investment moment for Canada.
- Power Sustainable has committed $10 billion to infrastructure investing, reflecting a strategy to deploy capital in Canada over the long term while looking past current U.S. administration dynamics.
- Capital allocation is shifting from viewing North America as a monolith to evaluating Canada versus the U.S., creating potential hundreds of billions in opportunity if exposure doubles, contingent on Canada eliminating regulatory headwinds and reducing costs.
- If Canada fails to address regulatory and cost issues to create a business-friendly environment, investment firms warn they may seek opportunities in other markets despite the country's natural resources and rule of law.
- Private credit in Canada is expected to follow equity capital deployment, with willingness to enter the market once equity capital competes effectively against bank capital.
- The U.S. is expected to remain the largest economy with Canada as its next-door neighbor for the foreseeable future, though trade tensions, including potential tariffs, are likely to persist due to U.S. budgetary challenges.
- Tariffs on Canadian components are predicted to result in inflation for American consumers as businesses pass on costs for goods such as lumber, aluminum, and toilet paper.
- The U.S. debt situation is projected to follow a "roller coaster" path with no clear resolution, potentially crowding out other investment opportunities, though consumer and corporate underleveraging may mitigate immediate aggregate concerns.
- A "K-shaped economy" is emerging where higher socioeconomic scales remain more stable, while shrinking populations in Western nations limit sovereign tools for cutting entitlements.
- Canada's AAA balance sheet is viewed as providing flexibility to invest in infrastructure and diversify the economy, contrasting with the U.S. lack of this status.
- Investment capital is currently being deployed into the largest pipeline of wind, solar, and battery projects in Canada, alongside credit investments in fiber and renewables.
- Global debates on slowing AI growth due to risks regarding nuclear proliferation are noted, though business leaders are advised that companies cannot be anti-AI and must leverage existing models to avoid falling behind.
- Investors are expected to need to ensure they are investing for the right reasons with appropriate structures within the next five years to avoid fear-driven decision-making.
- The relationship between the U.S. and Canada is described as familial with high cross-border population mobility, where trade is expected to continue as Canada seeks to enhance competitiveness rather than replace the U.S. market.