Panel, Conference Presentation
Big Goals, New Strategies and the Future of High-Level Philanthropy
- Anticipated reductions in U.S. government funding for specific tasks, including historic preservation and federal science support (such as NIH), are expected to persist for the foreseeable future, specifically noting a sequester impact lasting at least 10 years.
- Charitable deductions in the U.S. are projected to face future limitations similar to those on mortgage interest or state tax deductions, though not likely elimination due to religious influence, alongside a current tax burden expected to remain stable while spending cuts continue.
- The philanthropic movement is forecasted to expand globally, with a significant expected shift in impact occurring outside the United States, driven by increasing wealth in emerging markets that may eventually direct capital toward the U.S.
- Demographic shifts are predicted to influence giving patterns, including a surge in philanthropy from individuals aged 60–70 due to increased longevity, an anticipated influx of young multibillionaires retiring early to pursue impact, and a future projection that women will control 70% of U.S. wealth.
- A trend of top talent moving from traditional finance firms to social initiatives is hoped for, though a counter-prediction suggests many young people may prioritize high earnings in the capitalist world over the next 5 to 15 years.
- China is expected to rise significantly in fundamental science over the next decade or two, potentially yielding more Nobel Prizes and Breakthrough Prize winners, as the field remains underfunded globally due to a lack of public attention.
- Specific institutional plans include creating perfect replicas of the Declaration of Independence for all 155 U.S. embassies to serve as inspirational reminders, with constraints that monitored private project spending will not exceed 50% of allocated funds.
- Concerns exist that the increasing reliance on private sector funding will not sufficiently compensate for dramatic decreases in federal support, while university capital campaigns are expected to continue launching to maintain competitiveness.
- Future philanthropy is expected to evolve away from grant writing as the primary method of change, with specific focus areas anticipated to include women's health issues like family planning and the need to engage young people from primary school in science education.
- Political reception to foreign capital flows remains uncertain, while domestic political dynamics indicate a Republican preference against increasing taxes, driving a continued trend of deficit reduction through spending cuts.