Interview, Fireside Chat
Big Ideas 2024: The Consumer AI Battleground Moves from Model to UX with Alex Immerman
- Consumer AI competition is projected to shift focus from raw model performance to user experience (UX), with 2024 breakout apps expected to leverage unique use cases, multiplayer modes, aggregated model interfaces, and workflow-driven solutions.
- Long-term competitive advantages (moats) are predicted to rely on network effects, switching costs, scale, and brand, with UX expected to serve as a primary driver for raising switching costs and strengthening network effects similar to the 2010 mobile shift.
- Significant financial barriers exist for running free consumer apps due to high inference requirements, unless companies are very well capitalized.
- The cost of accessing quality models, both closed and open source, is forecast to decline in 2024, enabling more affordable development for a broader consumer base and increasing activity on open-source platforms.
- Open source models are expected to reach parity with the best closed source models by 2024, creating pressure on closed source providers to lower costs.
- The decoupling of application and infrastructure layers is anticipated to lower barriers to entry, allowing founders to build companies without managing underlying models, mirroring the distribution dynamics introduced by the iPhone App Store.
- Gen I AI is predicted to generate fun, unconventional, and impactful new behaviors, while the overall likelihood of model shortages easing is increasing due to API availability and improved open-source capabilities.
- The 2024 outlook includes specific advancements such as smart energy grids, crime detection computer vision, democratized access to drugs like GLP-1s, and a transition from "black box" to "clear box" AI.