Interview, Fireside Chat
Biotech and the Transition from Pandemic to Endemic
- Transition toward an endemic phase is underway in U.S. and Western nations with high immunization rates, while the pandemic designation persists in parts of Africa, Asia, and Latin America due to low vaccination coverage.
- U.S. vaccine hesitancy has declined from 22% in January to the mid-teens, with expectations that it will asymptote to this level rather than vanish completely.
- Approximately 8% to 9% of the U.S. population remains "definitely hesitant," necessitating targeted communications to drive further reduction.
- Immunity duration is estimated to range between 6 and 12 months, prompting a debate on booster timelines as the sector nears nine months post-emergency use authorization.
- Governments anticipate implementing different boosters to reduce transmission, while companies aim to maintain a proactive stance rather than reacting to supply gaps.
- Clinical data on boosters is expected to emerge in the coming months to inform decision-making.
- Future booster decisions will likely involve a blend of government and private payer influence driven by significant cost components.
- Leading mRNA companies (BioNTech, Pfizer, and Moderna) are conducting clinical work to develop combined flu and COVID vaccine elements.
- COVID-19 is projected to remain with the population for a "very long time," requiring sustained vigilance against complacency as society normalizes.
- Lessons from the pandemic are expected to accelerate improvements in other disease areas, with the mRNA platform retaining a core status in the industry.