Conference Presentation, Fireside Chat, Interview
Blake Scholl: Why Plane Speed Stalled, Supersonic Commercial Flight, & Revolutionizing the Engine
- XB-1 is scheduled to become the first privately developed jet to break the sound barrier in 2025, followed by the first vertically integrated jet engine core entering a test stand next month.
- A jet turbine factory is currently under construction with plans to scale production to multiple gigawatts per year within five years, aiming to add over 10 gigawatts to the grid in that same period.
- The engine technology is being adapted for data centers by removing the fan and adding a generator, a configuration expected to deploy 42 megawatts for behind-the-meter power generation, with current demand estimated in the tens of gigawatts.
- Commercial supersonic flights are projected for 2030, give or take, with a primary goal of four years for development, targeting travel speeds up to Mach 1.3 for boomless cruise from New York to San Francisco in 9.5 hours.
- Expected operational speeds include twice the speed of sound over water and 50% faster travel over land without sonic booms, with the ban on supersonic flight anticipated to end via an executive order effective June 6th of the previous year.
- The Supersonic Legalization Act is expected to pass the Senate unanimously, though the speaker cautions that the path to commercialization is not guaranteed and acknowledges risks of regulatory reversal.
- Pricing for a round-trip Atlantic flight at Mach 1.7 (3.5 hours) is estimated to have a break-even fare of approximately $3,500, with actual market prices likely exceeding this figure.
- The speaker aims to compete with private jet manufacturers like Gulfstream and Falcon if those companies do not develop supersonic aircraft, intending to make supersonic travel accessible to all passenger classes over many generations.
- Legislative momentum is being driven by rapid administrative engagement, evidenced by an executive order signed in 115 days and the delivery of an airplane model to the Oval Office within two days of the sound barrier test.
- While the speaker predicts the effort to develop an engine from scratch is succeeding following the termination of the partnership with Rolls-Royce, the exact timeline for full commercial availability remains uncertain.