Oct 20, 2022, 7:13 AM ETInterview, Fireside Chat

Bryan Caplan - Feminists, Billionaires, and Demagogues

Dwarkesh PatelBryan Caplan

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American feminist discourse is projected to remain below 1% of total rhetoric regarding female infanticide in China and India, with a predicted rise in Western-style radical feminism among Indian elites acting as a distraction from such critical issues.
The culture of entrepreneurship is expected to continue driving a movement where non-billionaire individuals act as significant "movers and shakers," supported by tournament theory which views high CEO pay as a necessary incentive for the entire ecosystem.
Paternal support for children is anticipated to decline from historical odds of 90% in 1940 to current odds of 60–70%, with this trend expected to worsen further.
Meritocracy is projected to remain intuitively appealing and function effectively, while a current cultural trend favoring the removal of men from value-delivering positions is expected to outweigh the reverse trend.
Immigration policies utilizing "keyhole solutions" without voting rights are predicted to fail multi-generationally, particularly regarding the children and grandchildren of immigrants, even as restrictionist concerns are expected to dilute over time.
The speaker anticipates that open borders could fast-forward future development by millions of years, potentially saving the $100 trillion in wealth lost to current restrictions and discovering life-extending innovations sooner, though the U.S. "can-do" attitude remains a barrier compared to nations like Poland which absorbed a 10% population increase.
Societal happiness metrics predict a shift from a two-percentage point advantage for women relative to men in the 1960s to a two-percentage point deficit currently, largely attributed to the rise of single motherhood and the disproportionate impact of feminism on the unhappiness of elites who prioritize it.
Education trends foresee a decline in traditional four-year college attendance by no more than 10% over the next decade, while community college attendance is expected to fall as its signaling value is perceived as "barely better than nothing" outside specific fields like nursing.
Student loan forgiveness is predicted to act as a regressive transfer leading to credential inflation and a slippery slope toward free college for all, while education austerity by right-wing governments is expected to be minimal due to the high prestige of state university systems.
Mental health trends suggest that increased anxiety and neuroticism in young people are largely artifacts of measurement and medicalization rather than a true historical increase, with suicide rates expected to rebound to levels similar to the 1950s after falling from 1970 to 2000.
Corporate behavior regarding affirmative action is expected to be driven primarily by public relations and status seeking rather than genuine policy adoption, and corporate philanthropy is predicted to involve significantly higher spending on marketing the donation than on the donation itself.
Leadership profiles favoring "very caring" and "very logical" effective altruists are expected to outperform those relying on conventional morality, with historical analysis predicting that the Russian Revolution required Lenin and that the peaceful fall of communism in Eastern Europe was the most successful revolution due to its lack of bloodshed.
Housing supply is anticipated to be driven primarily by constructive interest groups like real estate developers countering NIMBY opposition, though public opinion remains the primary driver of policies like farm subsidies despite their economic inefficiency.
The speaker expects that "endogenous sexism" and one-sided complaint dynamics regarding race and class will persist, while the "enforcement" of fairness through false accusations is predicted to result in society treating men unfairly, negatively affecting women as a side effect.
Employer hiring practices are expected to continue relying on credentials rather than "hire, watch, and fire" strategies due to social, emotional, and legal difficulties, with top firms hiring thousands of credentialed employees for every few contest winners.
The definition of feminism in the U.S. is viewed as failing to account for women mistreating other women, such as foot binding, while the speaker anticipates that mentorship of women by male managers has visibly worsened due to fear of sexual harassment allegations.
The speaker expects to maintain an undefeated record of 23 wins on 10-year bets regarding college attendance declines, while predicting the global warming bet is the only one likely to be lost given 3-to-1 odds.
Historical analysis suggests that economic growth starting in 1800 was quite inevitable due to scientific and business conditions, whereas major wars are highly contingent and often avoidable through negotiation or symbolic concessions.
The equilibrium of competing police and legal systems is expected to be the optimal solution if achievable, potentially solving international war and reducing the need for terror by dictators who still wish to be liked by their populations.
Stand-up comedy is predicted to rely heavily on exact word choice requiring constant A/B testing, with limited transfer of learning from public speaking due to the inability to read audience emotions without seeing faces.
The climate of false accusations is expected to tip average fairness treatment against men, creating a scenario where men feel unable to argue in the marketplace of ideas against angry women, a dynamic considered plausible and applicable to other identity groups.
Demographic representation focused on symbolism rather than progress is predicted to create a slippery slope to negative outcomes, while the argument that society is unfair to men due to dangerous jobs is expected to lose force as automation reduces physical risks, though it remains complicated.
Right-wing governments are expected to barely implement education austerity, with the most plausible policy change being the defunding of unpopular departments like Ethnic Studies while maintaining the total school budget.
Peer effects in colleges are anticipated to be a "double-edged sword" that simultaneously makes attendees more free-market while segregating them to influence them in the opposite direction, leaving the net effect on societal free-market sentiment totally unclear.
The speaker expects that elite subcultures formed by segregation will persist across institutions such as colleges and corporate apprenticeships, driven by the difficulty of testing applicants and the necessity of signaling credentials.
Political rhetoric regarding student loans is predicted to act as a "weaponized nuclear" defense mechanism for the system, making significant structural changes unlikely despite the argument that there is "way too much" socially wasteful education.
The speaker anticipates that the most plausible explanation for perceived gender superiority is "endogenous sexism," though the causal link to unfair treatment remains an open empirical question, while the "enforcement" of fairness via false accusations is expected to negatively impact women as a side effect.
Historical analysis predicts that the American Revolution's role in ending slavery was contingent, whereas the British anti-slavery movement would likely have spread to the colonies regardless, and that the peaceful prosperity of modern society is an exception caused by rich societies having less "crazy electorates."
The speaker expects that the harm from immigration restriction is significant because missing out on $100 trillion in wealth while people are poorest matters immensely, and that immigration restrictions could delay the discovery of the person who could beat death by five to ten years.
The speaker anticipates that the "can-do attitude" required for mass immigration is the primary obstacle in the U.S., whereas complaints about absorbing refugees are "phony and bogus" and depend entirely on societal belief in the goodness of refugees.
The speaker expects that the "enforcement" of fairness through false accusations leads to society treating men unfairly, which negatively affects women as a side effect, while predicting that the rise of single motherhood is a key factor in why women have become less happy.
The speaker predicts that mentorship of women by male managers has visibly worsened due to fear of sexual harassment allegations, and that the standard of requiring "objective correct answers" is a virtue to be enjoyed by all rather than a male trait.
The speaker expects that the "diamonds in the rough" problem necessitates signaling through credentials because employers cannot afford to test every applicant, and that most conflicts are caused by misunderstandings rather than deliberate wrongdoing.
The speaker anticipates that elite subcultures formed by segregation will likely persist regardless of the institution, and that the definition of feminism used in the U.S. is not calibrated to account for cases where women mistreat other women.
The speaker expects that the quality of management varies significantly by country, suggesting that specific entrepreneurs like Jeff Bezos are not easily replaceable, and that the "tournament theory" of high CEO pay incentivizes the entire culture of entrepreneurship.
The speaker predicts that the peaceful and prosperous nature of modern society is an exception to the historical norm, achieved because rich societies have less "crazy electorates" that suppress "atavistic desires" for bloodbaths, while dictators want to be liked to rule more easily.
The speaker anticipates that constructive interest groups, such as real estate developers, are the main reason housing gets built in America, countering the NIMBY opposition, though public opinion drives most policy.
The speaker expects that people generally care more about "System One" concerns like pronouns than objectively more important issues like genocide, and that his instinctive reaction to personal rudeness is to yell back, though he tries to override this.
The speaker expects that the equilibrium of competing police and legal systems (anarcho-capitalism) is the "best system" if it can be achieved, as it would solve international war, diffuse nationalism, and dethrone demagogues.
The speaker believes that "tournament theory" explains the social value of high rewards for billionaires, as it incentivizes the entire culture of entrepreneurship, predicting that even individuals who will never become billionaires act as "movers and a shaker."
The speaker expects that the culture of entrepreneurship fosters a movement where even individuals who will never become billionaires act as "movers and a shaker," while predicting that society has become hyper-concerned with the mistreatment of women, causing the theory that society treats women less fairly to become less true over time.
The speaker predicts that focusing on demographic representation rather than actual progress creates a "slippery slope" that leads to bad places, and that the argument that society is unfair to men because of dangerous jobs loses some of its force due to automation.
The speaker expects that the climate of false accusations of unfairness currently tips the scales of average fairness treatment against men, and that the "enforcement" of fairness through false accusations results in society treating men unfairly, negatively affecting women as a side effect.
The speaker anticipates that the "endogenous sexism" theory is a plausible explanation for perceived superiority but leaves the causal link to unfair treatment as an open empirical question, while expecting the dynamic of one-sided complaint likely applies to race and class issues as well.
The speaker expects that being a woman would make it easier to have more children due to societal traits, though this is not a universal preference, and notes that data suggests women's preferences have a much larger effect on family size than men's preferences.
The speaker predicts that mentorship of women by male managers has visibly worsened because managers are "reluctant to mentor female employees" due to fear of sexual harassment allegations, and that the standard of requiring "objective correct answers" is not a uniquely male trait.
The speaker expects that most conflicts are caused by misunderstandings rather than deliberate wrongdoing, and predicts that assuming immediate wrongdoing leads to losing friends, while believing it is unreasonable to demand that entire disciplines like math change their teaching style to accommodate men.
The speaker anticipates that corporations file briefs supporting affirmative action primarily for public relations and to gain status, rather than because they genuinely want to adopt such policies voluntarily, and expects corporate philanthropy involves spending significantly more on marketing the donation than on the donation itself.
The speaker predicts that peer effects in colleges could be a "double-edged sword," making attendees more free-market while simultaneously removing them from the general population to influence them in the opposite direction, and expects it is "totally unclear" whether education makes society overall more free market.
The speaker expects that it is "totally unclear" whether education makes society overall more free market due to the segregation effects of colleges, and anticipates that elite subcultures formed by segregation will likely persist regardless of the institution.
The speaker expects that student loan forgiveness acts as a regressive transfer from the general population to elites, and predicts it will likely lead to "credential inflation" or "free college for all" via a slippery slope, while believing the main problem with education is that there is "way too much of it."
The speaker expects that attendance in traditional four-year colleges will fall by no more than 10% over the next 10 years, having already won the first bet on this trend, and notes that community college attendance has fallen because the signal sent is "barely better than nothing."
The speaker expects to win a series of 10-year bets regarding college attendance declines, maintaining an undefeated record of 23 wins for 23 resolved bets, and predicts that the only bet he is likely to lose is the global warming bet with Joram Baumann.
The speaker expects that right-wing governments will "barely" implement education austerity because the prestige of state university systems is too high for politicians to challenge, and anticipates that the most plausible policy change right now is defunding unpopular departments.
The speaker predicts that the historical rhetoric of Lyndon Johnson regarding student loans creates a "weaponized nuclear rhetoric" that politicians will use to defend the system, and expects that increased anxiety and neuroticism in young people are largely an artifact of measurement.
The speaker notes that suicide rates fell from 1970 to 2000 and have "had a big rebound since then," likely returning to levels similar to the 1950s, and expects that the harm from immigration restriction is significant because missing out on $100 trillion in wealth matters immensely.
The speaker predicts that open borders can "fast forward" the future, allowing millions of people to be rescued from poverty in a short amount of time, and believes it is "quite likely" that the person who could beat death is currently trapped in a poor village.
The speaker expects that the "diamonds in the rough" problem makes signaling (credentials) necessary because employers cannot afford to hire and test every applicant individually, and predicts that employers do not typically "hire, watch, and fire" strategies.
The speaker expects that even top firms like Google hire thousands of credentialed employees for every few contest winners without credentials, and anticipates that the "can-do attitude" required for mass immigration is the primary obstacle in the U.S.
The speaker expects that the complaints about absorbing refugees are "phony and bogus" and depend entirely on whether the society believes refugees are bad or good, and predicts that if decolonization had been handled with a pre-committed, ironclad timetable it would have avoided the bloodbaths seen in India.
The speaker expects that leaders who are "very caring" but "very logical" are the best profile for leadership, whereas those who are merely conventionally moral may be bad leaders due to wishful thinking, and believes that "honesty" in leadership involves making credible promises.
The speaker identifies the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe as likely the "best example of a revolution" due to its peacefulness, though he notes it might not technically count as a revolution, and expects that the Korean War is the "best record" of a war.
The speaker anticipates that the American Revolution's role in ending slavery was contingent, and that the British anti-slavery movement would likely have spread stronger to the colonies regardless, while predicting that the Russian Revolution would not have happened without Lenin.
The speaker believes that economic growth starting in 1800 was "quite inevitable" due to scientific and business conditions, whereas major wars are highly contingent and could often be avoided by one side giving in, and expects that most world leaders can be negotiated with.
The speaker predicts that the peaceful and prosperous nature of modern society is an exception to the historical norm, achieved because rich societies have less "crazy electorates" that suppress "atavistic desires" for bloodbaths, and expects that even dictators want to be liked by their population.
The speaker anticipates that constructive interest groups, such as real estate developers, are the main reason housing gets built in America, countering the NIMBY opposition, and expects that public opinion drives most policy.
The speaker notes that Charles Mann argues that pricing water efficiently is not politically viable because of the physical necessity of water for survival, and predicts that people generally care more about "System One" concerns like pronouns than objectively more important issues like genocide.
The speaker expects that his instinctive reaction to personal rudeness is to yell back, though he tries to override this to remain friendly, and anticipates that his "secondary anger" is triggered almost exclusively by other people being angry.
The speaker expects that the equilibrium of competing police and legal systems (anarcho-capitalism) is the "best system" if it can be achieved, as it would solve international war, diffuse nationalism, and dethrone demagogues, and believes that "tournament theory" explains the social value of high rewards for billionaires.
The speaker expects that the quality of management varies significantly by country, suggesting that specific entrepreneurs like Jeff Bezos are not easily replaceable, and predicts that the "tournament theory" of high CEO pay is not just about the winner but incentivizes everyone who tells themselves "maybe one day, me."