Panel
Building a 21st Century Workforce and Market – What’s the Solution? (KPCC Forum Series)
Milken InstituteMatt Horton, John Cohn, Ben Bergman, Kevin Clowden, Vontone Quinlevin, Jessica Goodhart, Russell Ragsdale
- The Milken Institute expects to utilize forum recommendations to shape policy initiatives in 2016 and beyond, with subsequent events scheduled for November 19 and future planning extending into 2016.
- Employment trends indicate a geographical shift where the Bay Area has absorbed the majority of new, high-paying jobs in California, causing Southern California to lose its status as the largest high-tech employment center from its 1990 share of nearly one in five jobs.
- Demographic projections suggest that without immigrant recruitment, the California population would shrink; however, failure to retain or recruit immigrants risks creating a skills mismatch where incoming workers lack the capabilities for available regional jobs.
- Los Angeles remains the national leader in small business creation and new ideas, yet faces challenges including declining educational attainment levels in LA County compared to rising achievement in other regions.
- Economic data shows a divergence in job quality, with Texas and Florida attracting new factory expansions for mid-skilled jobs driven by lower costs, while the majority of jobs added under Rick Perry in Texas were low-paying and low-skilled.
- Regulatory hurdles in California, such as permitting processes taking two to three years compared to six months in other states, create significant barriers to attracting manufacturing expansions, a situation illustrated by the shutdown of the C-17 line in the state.
- The workforce requires a near five to ten year evolution to handle advanced IT, data analytics, and grid management capabilities, necessitating curriculum changes at universities to address the current lack of technical depth in electrical engineering programs.
- Labor market analysis projects that 65 percent of future jobs will require post-secondary training, creating an estimated shortage of one million bachelor's degree holders while simultaneously expanding demand for middle-skill credentials.
- Career technical education programs at community colleges are expected to continue serving as a primary strategy for poverty reduction, with graduates earning an average of $68,000, while specific technical roles such as electrical systems transmission command average salaries of $110,000.
- The future economy is characterized by a "21st century grid" requiring increased technology for sustainability, with Southern California Edison having already interconnected over 100,000 solar installations.
- Economic policy discussions highlight a potential million-worker shortage of bachelor's degree holders alongside a growth in middle-skill jobs, while raising the minimum wage to $15 in Los Angeles in 2020 may discourage formalization without accompanying policy changes.
- Technological adoption, including drones and automated systems, is expected to eliminate lower-skilled roles in trucking and food service, requiring community skill upgrades to match the pace of productivity gains that allow companies like Facebook to generate high value with fewer employees.
- Housing dynamics are shifting with price resurgences tied to job proximity, rendering the ratio of house value to family income unsustainable for households earning over $100,000 in areas where housing stock is insufficient.
- The shelf life of knowledge is shortening, requiring individuals to repeatedly re-stack credentials through lifelong learning, while the gig economy's trajectory must be monitored for potential shifts from supplementary income to primary employment requiring new security protections.
- Future job growth is anticipated in sustainability sectors such as cool roofs, energy-efficient buildings, and smart grids, alongside a competitive landscape defined by the combination of traditional degrees ("big Cs") and micro-credentials ("little Cs").
- Structural changes in the economy include a predicted necessity for longer working lives due to longer life expectancies and reduced savings, fostering a culture where re-education and employer-sponsored training become essential norms.
- Specific industry challenges include the elimination of large-scale airplane manufacturing in California, the need for 3D and 4D manufacturing expertise, and the reliance on crowdsource funding platforms like Kiva to support entrepreneurs bypassing traditional banking capital limits.