Conference Presentation, Panel, Fireside Chat
Business and the Global Economy: Driving Growth and Innovation | Global Conference 2025
Milken InstituteConrad Kiechel, Gerard Baker, Ajay Banga, Mariam bint Mohammed AlMheiri, Rich Lesser, Gilberto Tomazoni, Jerry Baker
- Generative AI, biomedical innovation, and other fields are viewed as enduring sources of promise despite global disruption, with energy and AI identified as mutual dependency pillars for new economies.
- The global economic environment is expected to diverge from the patterns of the past 25 to 30 years, making historical growth rates uncertain as the labor and logistics arbitrage model shifts toward regional and bilateral deals over the next decade.
- Intra-regional trade is projected to grow significantly in Africa, South Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean, while the UAE and EU are expected to advance a previously stalled free trade agreement.
- Manufacturing is anticipated to decline as a share of global capacity and jobs due to automation, with no expectation for US manufacturing to return to pre-automation magnitudes, though the US may pursue significant investment via tax incentives or uncertain tariffs.
- The food sector is expected to become central to sustainable growth driven by population and protein demand, requiring a strategic reframing where currently less than 4% of climate investment targets agriculture.
- Innovation in food and agriculture is forecast to scale through regenerative practices, soil health, carbon fixation, and biodiversity, with biotechnology offering productivity transformation potential comparable to or exceeding AI.
- A demographic shift is expected as 1.2 billion young people in the developing world enter the workforce over the next 12 to 15 years, creating a forecast for 400 million jobs that leaves a massive gap without intervention to prevent increased social unrest and migration within five years.
- The World Bank aims to connect 300 million people in Africa to electricity and reach 1.5 billion with primary health care by 2030, while private sector capital is deemed essential for financing job creation in infrastructure, agriculture, and manufacturing.
- The private sector is expected to generate 85% of the world's jobs once enabling infrastructure and regulations are provided, with capital requirements for development dependent on demonstrating scaling and returns from AI and productivity.
- AI is expected to drive huge productivity changes within six to eight months of implementation in UAE operations, contributing to a goal for an AI-driven government by 2027, with all UAE schools integrating AI into curricula from kindergarten to grade 12 starting September 2025.
- AI is projected to cause significant individual task displacement while simultaneously creating new ideas, with about a quarter of leading companies currently implementing AI and three-quarters on the journey, potentially moving US trend growth beyond the current 2.5%.
- A hyperscaler data center is expected to require approximately 10 to 20 hectares, 100 megawatts of power, and 10,000 kilometers of copper cables, underscoring the critical nature of accessible and affordable energy, which may be recognized as a human right including transitional use of gas in countries like Senegal.
- Financial instruments are expected to include marketable securities bundling infrastructure loans from multiple countries within two to three years to attract pension funds, alongside a World Bank plan to double political risk guarantees in the coming years.
- JSB expects to go public in the US as a growth opportunity, while global leaders are expected to face pressure to demonstrate technology usage that prioritizes citizen welfare to address insecurity and uncertainty.