Panel, Conference Presentation
Business Tax Reform: Hammering Out the Details
Milken InstituteBen White, Chris Campbell, Ross DeVol, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Gene Sperling, Mark Weinberger
- Corporate and individual tax reform is anticipated as a critical priority in Washington over the next few months, with expectations favoring a unified, comprehensive Republican package that links corporate rate cuts to individual tax reductions.
- Legislative proceedings are projected to begin in the House, move through the Senate Finance Committee, and conclude at the President's desk, likely requiring a 51-vote threshold and facing a lack of bipartisan support from Democrats.
- The final corporate tax rate is expected to rise from the initial 15% proposal to a range between 17% and 19% due to political pressure regarding deductions, with pass-through rates adjusted closer to top individual rates.
- Proponents hope economic growth will finance the reforms, though critics predict the package will result in a $2 to $3 trillion tax cut that is largely unpaid for, leading to higher debt limits and short-term deficits.
- Legislation may face Byrd rule constraints, creating a possibility that tax cuts enacted through reconciliation could sunset after two to three years unless permanent revenue neutrality is achieved.
- The border adjustment tax is viewed as a significant hurdle, with expectations that it cannot be executed within the current six-month window due to political and structural constraints, potentially rendering it a "last resort" or excluding it entirely.
- The final outcome is characterized as likely being a party-line vote focused on short-term stimulus rather than a permanent, comprehensive reform, with a high probability of future reversal under a different administration.
- Political realities may prevent the elimination of state and local tax deductions, and pass-through provisions will likely include constraints to prevent high-income professionals from exploiting arbitrage opportunities.
- Business pressure is expected to drive the pace of the deal, though the process is predicted to be messy, with some initial incentives potentially delayed or removed to ensure passage.
- Critics fear the reforms may fail to stop global corporate tax inversions or the "race to the bottom" in rates, while others note the legislation may effectively function as a tax cut for the well-off rather than a true structural reform.