Conference Presentation, Fireside Chat, Panel
California: The Post-COVID Future of Work
Milken InstituteJackie Botts, Sarah Bohn, Rob Lapsley, David Lesher, Matt Horton, Aleida Ramirez, Lorena Gonzalez
- CalMatters plans to host multiple additional events with the Milken Institute this year, including a future of work series, with the next event scheduled for late July to discuss the post-pandemic economy.
- The organization anticipates maintaining its status as a trusted information source and continues to solicit public subscriptions and donations to support this free service.
- Partners aim to distribute past economic successes to foster an inclusive recovery, specifically targeting increased access to education, housing, and higher-paying opportunities.
- There is an expectation that the reopening of businesses and high vaccination rates present a significant opportunity to establish a more equitable future of work.
- Structural changes in government policy, education systems, and business practices are deemed necessary to ensure the future of work supports Californians holistically rather than merely recovering from previous losses.
- Pre-pandemic data indicated that wages for low-income workers began rising after a decade-long stagnation, with the income gap between the top and bottom 20% of families narrowing slightly but still remaining five times larger.
- Recovery from the Great Recession occurred at approximately half the speed for Bay Area families compared to middle-income families in the Central Valley, highlighting significant regional disparities.
- Pre-pandemic job growth was polarized, with the fastest-growing roles concentrated at the extremes of low-wage personal care and food preparation versus high-wage nursing and software development.
- While a tight labor market is identified as the most effective mechanism for improving low-end wages, participants note the state is currently far from such conditions.
- Historic government intervention and stimulus packages successfully averted poverty for many families, though not all, creating a safety net that facilitates risk-taking such as business investment or skill retraining.
- Without structural changes, the historical trend of the slowest economic recovery for the most impacted groups is expected to persist.
- Rising costs of living are driving a middle-class exodus from California, contributing to the loss of a congressional seat, while the state's $75 billion surplus is noted as not necessarily indicative of a healthy, broad-based economy.
- A significant positive shift in telework is anticipated, with potential to keep 20% of daily cars off the road if employers are incentivized, which could free up resources for investments in the Central Valley and Sacramento to support affordable living.
- Business community discussions regarding the reduction of federal unemployment benefits are expected to intensify within approximately 60 days or after June 30.
- Unaddressed disparities for Latinas pose a risk of a worsening wage gap or a mass exit from the workforce that would render recovery efforts ineffective.
- By 2030, the expectation is that the state will prioritize providing meaningful career opportunities over direct cash payments to non-workers.
- Providing livable wage jobs with benefits is viewed as a more efficient use of public funds than supplementing social services, with the goal of reducing reliance on government aid for full-time workers.
- Low-wage workers are expected to hesitate in returning to work if schools do not resume full-time instruction with clear direction by June, which could further exacerbate learning gaps.
- The current crisis highlights a need to redirect existing resources to restructure systems for equity rather than layering additional programs, as waiting for government response is considered insufficient for some families.
- The American Rescue Plan offers flexibility to distribute aid through the tax system on a monthly or quarterly basis rather than annually.
- Wage growth in the entry-level sector is indicated by specific industry announcements, such as one suggesting potential for six-figure salaries within three years.
- School closures are identified as a primary reason for low workforce re-entry, specifically among parents unable to secure childcare, with expectations that workers will not return until children are back in school or clear options are resolved.
- Social service programs may be redirected to achieve full employment, potentially by paying family members adequate wages to remain home with young children.
- Extending paid training opportunities is predicted to help expand the workforce, as current apprenticeships and training are often unpaid.
- The conversation is scheduled to open to audience questions around 12:50.