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Can Donald Trump secure a deal with Cuba? | The Economist
- A potential oil embargo lift or leadership change in Cuba is contingent on a credible plan Marco Rubio can sell to Cuban-Americans, who are expected to accept any deal specifics.
- The Cuban regime is currently blocking a possible arrangement that would allow them to remain in power while improving living conditions, a scenario described as the best chance for a deal if they step aside.
- Marco Rubio and Donald Trump are identified as the only figures capable of delivering a long-term perspective to the Cuban-American community to facilitate such an agreement.
- Any agreement struck by Donald Trump is predicted to be postponed and utilized to extend contracts to allies rather than genuinely opening Cuba.
- Donald Trump is assessed as lacking the attention span or ability to stick to complex plans or follow through on political transitions and free elections consistently over months or years.
- A deal described as "shabby" or "cronyish" that results in the removal of the current regime is viewed as a favorable outcome due to the incentives involved, despite the potential lack of substance.