Panel, Conference Presentation
Can Terrorism in Europe Be Defeated?
Milken InstituteRobert Fox, Lord Paddy Ashdown, Lily Caprani, Pippa Malmgren, Sir Richard Shirreff, DJ Peterson, Rupert Phelps, Joan Hoey, Phil Allison, Joan Pickersgill, Eric Deggans
- Attacks by rogue individuals are predicted to continue unexpectedly, with social media proselytisation and fighter flows to and from the Levant identified as key drivers influencing future discussions.
- Governments are expected to persistently seek expanded powers and the relinquishment of civil liberties in reaction to security service failures or bomb outrages, a trend linked to the "non-impossible" challenge of historical context and the need to avoid stumbles caused by historical ignorance.
- Terrorism is characterized as a technique and tactic of war that cannot be definitively defeated, though the specific actors utilizing terror can be neutralized or isolated from the moderate majority if they do not constitute an irreconcilable element.
- Economic weakness in the West is predicted to foster black markets and terrorist financing by pushing Western Europe toward cash economies, with business models identified as drivers and prosperity viewed as essential to reducing centrifugal forces that drive extremism.
- Radicalization processes are expected to evolve due to global connectivity and internet communications, yet remain driven by constant factors of vulnerability and alienation, necessitating systems to protect children from exploitation and grooming.
- It is anticipated that the number of returnees from the battlefield of jihad will increase rather than decrease, requiring international cooperation, shared strategies, and sustained intelligence agency collaboration regardless of changes in legal constructs like the European Communities Act.
- The "battle of ideas" requires supporting moderate Muslims to regain control of their religion and the active use of the internet for prevention, as failing to address the historical and economic context or weaponize online spaces may lead to terrible turbulence, violence, and the exclusion of contributors to Western values.
- The establishment is warned that messages regarding "British values" may inadvertently cause anger if not carefully managed, and that addressing the motivations of terrorists requires moral, intellectual, and physical courage.
- A permanent disagreement among academics and the UN regarding a single definition of terror is expected, while the private sector is urged to contribute to stabilizing fragile states to generate the prosperity that flows into security.