Conference Presentation, Fireside Chat, Panel
Capital in Motion: Repositioning at Scale for the Next Cycle | Global Conference 2026
- Geopolitical uncertainty premiums remain elevated due to conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, with predictions that national security will become the primary political and economic priority globally, driving a shift in capital flows away from reliance on the Straits of Hormuz and increasing demand for capital in defense and energy security.
- Global supply chains are transitioning from just-in-time inventory models to requiring elasticity to navigate material disruptions, while market fundamentals underpinning the last 50 years are changing in real time, necessitating dynamic portfolio allocation and heightened liquidity.
- Artificial Intelligence is forecasted to be the dominant investment theme with only 10% to 15% of capital currently deployed, expected to drive the fastest revenue accelerations in capital market history, create a rapid adoption mandate for incumbents, and generate significant productivity gains alongside "big winners and losers."
- Private credit is anticipated to enter a cycle characterized by distributed elevated losses and a shift in bargaining power toward lenders, despite current market noise, while semi-liquid funds face scrutiny regarding term structures for individual investors.
- Specific capital deployment opportunities are identified in aerospace, defense, healthcare evolution, industrial re-industrialization, and energy over the next ten years, with particular emphasis on European alpha versus beta and an anticipated M&A wave.
- Market participants plan to implement a total portfolio approach by July 1, maintain a disciplined risk framework through simulation to handle unexpected events, and avoid rapid portfolio pivots while expecting the overall portfolio to remain relatively stable over the next three years.
- Investment strategies include deploying 400 basis points of active risk into private markets (including AI), targeting a 6.8% overall return, and utilizing off-balance sheet financing driven by the largest global companies to diversify funding sources.
- Risks include a lack of retraining programs for the gig economy caused by AI displacement in entry-level roles, the exponential compounding effect of cyber threats involving nation-state actors, high debt levels in emerging countries, and the risk that technology advancements in leading economies may widen the gap with the developing world.
- Macroeconomic conditions are expected to feature persistent high deficits globally with insufficient state capital to support growth, requiring investors to manage balance sheets carefully and avoid excessive trading mentalities while navigating potential economic challenges in Europe.