Panel, Conference Presentation
Carbon Credits: Unlocking Climate Finance and Natural Capital Valuation | Global Conference 2025
- Hiro Mizuno anticipates carbon credits will become the primary mechanism for reallocating capital to developing markets to address climate change, pending further modeling to confirm a future sizable market.
- Peter Fernandez projects a requirement for 10 billion tons of annual carbon dioxide removal by 2050 to stabilize atmospheric CO2, translating to a potential trillion-dollar annual market that remains contingent on geopolitical outcomes.
- Olivia Albrecht and Hiro Mizuno expect Article 6 of the Paris Agreement to facilitate capital flows from developed to developing nations, though its specific impact on corporate purchasing demand remains uncertain.
- Peter Fernandez forecasts Brazil will emerge as a dominant carbon removal hub, with his firm Mombak aiming to raise one billion dollars by year-end and scale fundraising activities to the five-to-ten billion dollar range.
- Andrew Gilmore predicts sovereign wealth funds and large pension funds will take intrinsic long positions in carbon, particularly under Article 6, due to the inherent supply limits of emission reduction units.
- Peter Fernandez expects infrastructure investors to shift check sizes from 20 to 60 million dollars to 250 to 500 million dollars within the next 12 to 18 months.
- Andrew Gilmore anticipates the market will evolve into a more efficient environment with price transparency, potentially trading on entities like ICE, and expects the first billion-dollar single settlement transaction within the next year.
- Andrew Gilmore also forecasts the emergence of the first material short position in carbon within the next year to facilitate price discovery and move beyond a long-only market structure.
- Suzanne DiBianca plans to increase budgets for tree planting efforts by over 15 percent to account for natural losses and high insurance premiums associated with those risks.
- Olivia Albrecht suggests the industry requires higher pricing for high-quality carbon projects to attract risk capital and notes that sufficient data for assessing risk-adjusted returns and correlations is currently lacking for the asset class to stand alone.
- Suzanne DiBianca expresses concern regarding the lack of new net-zero commitments from companies and hopes broader participation will occur despite current political and economic headwinds.
- Andrew Gilmore expects financial innovation around sovereign carbon securities to increase transactability and fungibility across borders, reducing transaction friction and costs.
- Olivia Albrecht anticipates the arrival of new third-party rating agencies and marketplaces to improve infrastructure and market efficiency.
- Peter Fernandez believes private lenders will increasingly view reforestation as bankable, allowing for higher debt ratios that could reduce costs for developers while increasing returns for investors.
- Andrew Gilmore predicts the voluntary market will become more porous and integrated with compliance markets to address the inefficiencies caused by current fragmentation.