Sep 14, 2022, 10:00 AM ETInterview, Podcast

Charles C. Mann - Americas Before Columbus & Scientific Wizardry

Elite Collaboration: Historical patterns show elites frequently recognizing one another to form arrangements that increase mutual power while exploiting lower classes (e.g., Spanish/Inca hybrid nobility, British East India Company in Bengal).
Conquest Mechanics: Cortés conquered the Aztec Empire by fomenting civil war and allying with resentful subordinate groups (e.g., Tlaxcala) rather than facing the empire as a monolith.
Imperial Vulnerability: Pizarro's success in the Inca Empire relied on arriving immediately after a civil war and massive epidemic, allowing him to ally with the losing faction.
Alternative Histories: While contact between Eurasia and the Americas was inevitable due to epidemiological disparities (domesticated animals leading to zoonotic diseases), the specific outcomes (e.g., conquest direction, slavery) were highly contingent on chance and human agency.
Maroon Societies: Successful slave rebellions often resulted in temporary, autonomous communities (e.g., Palmares in Brazil, Great Dismal Swamp in the US) that persisted for decades or centuries despite overwhelming odds and brutal suppression.

Abolition Drivers: Multiple factors likely contributed to the decline of slavery: industrialization making machinery a viable alternative to labor, the economic shift away from agricultural slavery, and the rise of moral abolition movements (e.g., William Wilberforce, Bartolomé de las Casas).
Las Casas Impact: Bartolomé de las Casas's 1540s campaign pressured the Spanish Crown to pass "New Laws" attempting to ban slavery, causing a devastating economic blow to the colonial silver mining sector, though loopholes were eventually found.
Economic Redundancy: Historians debate whether slavery became economically obsolete due to the rise of wage labor and machinery, or if it persisted solely due to political and social inertia until external pressures forced change.

Pyramid Universals: Both Old and New World civilizations independently developed pyramids due to geometric constraints and the lack of alternatives for stable, long-lasting monuments.
The Wheel Paradox: The wheel was present in Mesoamerica (as toys) but not used for transport due to the lack of domesticated draft animals and the existence of the travois (sled), which was more efficient on rough terrain without paved roads.
Weaponry Values: Mesoamerican obsidian blades (macuahuitl) were sharper than steel but brittle; their use reflected a cultural preference for individual glory in warfare rather than the mass infantry tactics favored in Europe where durability was key.
Innovation Lag: Technologies like the moldboard plow and advanced metallurgy diffused slowly due to "mass stupidity," lack of trade networks, or cultural values prioritizing different outcomes (e.g., decorative weapons over utility).

Egalitarian Shifts: Archaeological evidence (LIDAR, ground-penetrating radar) suggests ancient sites like Teotihuacan and Chaco Canyon underwent political revolutions leading to more egalitarian social structures, contradicting the narrative of static hierarchical empires.
Re-evaluating Collapse: Historians like Charles Mann argue that "collapse" is often a misnomer for the survival of populations in decentralized forms (e.g., 30-40 million Maya people still exist today), though elite centers and large-scale infrastructure may have failed.
Epidemiological Devastation: The primary driver of societal disruption was the introduction of Old World diseases (smallpox, measles), which caused mortality rates 30-40 times higher than modern pandemics, decimating populations without germ theory or prior immunity.
Spanish Economic Delusion: The British continued to subsidize the unprofitable Virginia Company due to delusions of a narrow Americas, the belief in undiscovered gold, and imperial "keeping up with the Joneses" rivalry.

Definitions:
- Wizards: Believe science and technology can produce a way out of environmental dilemmas (e.g., Norman Borlaug, Stewart Brand).
- Prophets: Argue natural systems have inherent carrying capacities, limits, and planetary boundaries that cannot be overcome by technology alone.
China's Population Boom: The introduction of New World crops (potatoes, maize) allowed China's population to soar by utilizing dry lands, validating the "Wizard" view in the short term, but also leading to long-term environmental degradation and social unrest, supporting the "Prophet" view of limits.
Green Revolution Nuance: While William Borlaug's wheat saved a billion lives, its success relied on local adaptation (Indian scientist Swaminathan modifying the crop) and occurred in a window where colonialism and antibiotics were already raising population rates.
Regulatory Trade-offs: Government agencies face a dilemma: strict regulations prevent catastrophic failures (e.g., Elixir Sulfanamide, Thalidomide) but can delay beneficial innovations (e.g., GMOs, vaccines) for decades; "regulatory capture" has specifically throttled nuclear power via inconsistent safety standards compared to coal.
Future Research: Agricultural research is overly concentrated on existing staples (wheat, rice, corn); significant gains could be made by diversifying into neglected crops (agroforestry, cassava) and systems like silvopasture.

Demographic Shifts: The American West is projected to remain ethnically diverse (40%+ Latino/Asian by mid-century) and economically powerful due to energy production, challenging the "frontier" narrative of the past.
Sovereignty Trends: There is an ongoing, clear trend toward the recuperation of sovereignty by 294 federally recognized Native Nations in the West, creating a complex landscape of overlapping jurisdictions.
Reinterpreting History: Current scholarship rejects Frederick Jackson Turner's "Frontier Thesis" of civilization taming wilderness; instead, it highlights indigenous fire management and survival strategies (e.g., Hohokum) as foundational to the region's history.
Silicon Valley Analogy: Modern tech hubs share sociological traits with historical frontier mining towns: attracting risk-tolerant individuals with little to lose, creating wealth but also social instability and exploitation.

Geoengineering: Experts predict the first geoengineering trials (e.g., stratospheric sulfur injection) will occur within the next 10 years, though regulatory and moral concerns regarding "moral hazard" remain high.
Human Challenge Trials: The author questions why governments hesitate to approve human challenge trials (used for speedier vaccine testing) despite their potential to save lives, noting the tension between safety and speed.
Effective Altruism: For a 1960s donor, the most effective intervention would likely have been funding clean water infrastructure (urban systems) rather than solely food, as water remains the most neglected critical need.
Future Values: Uncertainty about future human values suggests a "Prophet" approach of preserving options (e.g., not burying nuclear waste in ways that preclude future solutions) rather than assuming a specific utopian outcome.
Market Mechanisms: Free market arguments regarding resource scarcity are deemed ineffective for essentials like food, water, and energy, which are historically and currently governed by political distortions rather than pure supply/demand.