Conference Presentation, Webinar, Panel
China’s Economic Outlook
- Regional travel recovery in neighborhood countries including Japan, Korea, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam is on track, though Jane Sun predicts the end of multi-country large group travel until a vaccine is available.
- The "travel on" plan aims to link global demand with partners to improve cash flow and offer high-quality discounted products while enabling China's high-end hotels to capitalize on a domestic travel shift.
- Dr. Shen anticipates that the Chinese government will implement a 4% GDP fiscal stimulus in the second half of the year, focusing on new infrastructure investment to primarily benefit the digital economy.
- To support 8 million graduates entering the workforce, Dr. Shen expects the government to create civil service jobs and expand graduate programs while using digital consumer vouchers with time limits to jumpstart consumption.
- A V-shaped economic rebound is predicted to occur at a slightly lower level than pre-pandemic baselines due to lingering consumer concerns, with the recovery in China expected to be far faster than the average market.
- SoftBank portfolio companies are at various recovery stages with some resuming year-over-year growth, while CEOs are adopting long-term planning to address the pandemic's lingering effects on the economic landscape.
- Artificial intelligence and data-driven sciences are expected to deeply impact the future, with digital economy investment projected to enhance productivity and lead the next wave of technology advances over the coming decade.
- Behavioral changes including work-from-home arrangements, online education, and reliance on "telly everything" are expected to persist as long-term shifts as the economy reopens.
- Domestic-oriented businesses and largely virtual enterprises are expected to see major benefits, while export-oriented businesses with heavy dependence on global logistics and complete offline traditional businesses requiring gatherings will face continued challenges.
- Supply chain resilience will remain a critical topic, with meaningful movement expected to take a very long time and lower-skill manufacturing potentially shifting out of China while sophisticated manufacturing remains.
- Short-term liquidity-focused monetary policies are not expected to sustain long-term, with the focus shifting toward building new digital infrastructure that will definitely sustain growth.
- SoftBank's Vision Fund and Dr. Shen note that the development of online business will be stimulated, requiring huge investment to expand delivery services nationwide to every county and village.