Conference Presentation, Other
China v America: who is in charge?
- China is expected to methodically increase its influence within existing institutions like the UN over the coming years, including inserting favored wording into documents and leveraging its rising budget contribution (which rose from 1% to 12% over two decades) and control of four UN specialized agencies.
- If the US does not reassert global commitments, China's diplomatic power is projected to continue growing to fill the vacuum left by American withdrawal, potentially positioning itself as a champion of the world order to make the environment safer for Chinese expansion rather than explicitly usurping American hegemony.
- The US is characterized by a pattern of disengagement from international arrangements, including withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, the Iran nuclear deal, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and funding for the World Health Organization, creating a precedent that may define future foreign policy under "America first" nationalism.
- A new US president could potentially renew interest in outward-looking engagement, though this outcome is uncertain; conversely, the current trajectory suggests a risk that the rules-based world order will unravel if the US continues its "quitter" behavior regarding international agreements.
- Global institutions face structural risks due to 75-year-old frameworks ill-equipped for 21st-century challenges, with expectations that only a significant crisis or modernization efforts might spur the reform necessary to handle issues like climate change, cybercrime, and organized crime.
- The UN Security Council is expected to see a continued trend of stronger-arm tactics and veto usage, driven by a shifting balance of power and a shared interest between Russia and China in preventing Western interference in human rights.
- The alliance between Russia and China is considered potentially unsustainable long-term, as the declining Russian power may eventually find its alignment with the rising Chinese status uncomfortable, though both currently influence UN decisions to block Western human rights initiatives.
- Smaller nations may attempt to maintain the liberal world order through collective efforts despite the absence of full American leadership, yet this is viewed as difficult without US impetus, with some countries expecting to strengthen global structures following the pandemic to spur upheaval.
- The pandemic has hijacked the global agenda, with the future of global diplomacy and health leadership heavily dependent on how the crisis is resolved and whether the US remains disengaged from global health initiatives.
- Specific material disparities highlight the growing influence of China compared to the US, including China's control of four UN specialized agencies versus America's one, and the continuation of "little incidents" where China lobbies to block UN sessions, signaling a shift in diplomatic power that is expected to persist.