Interview, Podcast
Christian Ruhl on why we're entering a new nuclear age — and how to reduce the risks
- China's nuclear arsenal is projected to reach 1,000 warheads by 2030 and 1,500 by 2035.
- States may prioritize rapid AI integration into military systems, risking premature deployment of unsafe technology and compressing two-week crises into two hours to limit decision-making windows.
- The acceleration of warfare could paradoxically create a longer window for careful deliberation, while the emergence of a third nuclear power might deter conflict initiation.
- Philanthropic funding in the nuclear sector is expected to decline from approximately $47 million to $32 million annually due to the MacArthur Foundation's withdrawal.
- Future NGO engagement depends on uncertain external support due to current underfunding of rigorous risk studies, and "right of boom" interventions face reputational risks of appearing to make nuclear war seem winnable.
- Mitigation efforts may have limited impact on deterrence calculus as decision-makers typically exclude potential casualties of marginalized populations in the global south from their assessments.