Panel, Conference Presentation
Climate Change: Hope for the Best, Prepare for the Worst
Milken InstituteNathaniel Keohane, Michael Levi, Molly Macauley, Richard Sandor, Sheldon Whitehouse, Peter Passell
- Experts assert it is "too late" to prevent climate change or avoid damage, with the world already past the "point of no return."
- International migration is expected to accelerate, particularly from poor countries, driven by climate impacts.
- Wetter conditions will improve vectors for insect-borne diseases, while mud caused by increased moisture will hinder crop transport in Africa and much of Asia.
- Low-lying Pacific island states are "almost certain" to disappear due to sea-level rise, potentially creating stateless populations and raising legal questions regarding UN recognition.
- Bangladesh, with 150 million people below four feet of sea level, faces inundation, forcing population displacement into India and Burma.
- Ocean levels are currently 10 inches higher than in 1938; a similar storm in 2038 is predicted to be significantly more damaging due to the increased sea height.
- Historic water flow patterns no longer apply, which could cause water-based conflicts to escalate rapidly from low-profile states, particularly affecting downstream nations in Asia.
- The U.S. risks international resentment and compromised global leadership if it fails to address climate change responsibly, while isolationist voices in Congress may mobilize around disaster relief costs.
- U.S. contributions to international adaptation are set to increase, but there is a risk that the U.S. will eventually be unable to keep pace with the necessary spending as damage slopes upward.
- Current FEMA rebuild strategies are deemed inadequate for climate risk and require rebooting to facilitate sustainable and survivable rebuilding.
- Private actors cannot respond to incentives without clear knowledge of future challenges, and the current political discourse in Washington is described as non-existent or primitive regarding the term "climate change."
- North Carolina's state legislature has declared by fiat that sea-level rise cannot exceed three feet.
- Carbon trading markets are not dead; the U.S. is expected to follow California's lead in implementing carbon trading, while China is projected to demonstrate market-based climate management.
- The insurance industry faces a potential trillion-dollar problem against a reported primary surplus of $550 million, prompting calls to increase capital requirements and ring-fence catastrophic risk liabilities.
- A soft property market and low rates exist within the insurance sector, creating moral hazard issues if risks are privatized without government intervention.
- Energy infrastructure is currently not priced for catastrophic events and requires price adjustments to prevent massive blackouts; treating electricity like natural gas could generate hundreds of thousands of jobs and attract $75 to $100 billion in capital.
- The human experiment has historically occurred within a 170 to 300 parts per million carbon dioxide band, but levels have now crested 400 and are climbing outside this bandwidth.
- Climate problems are viewed as intractable unless global warming is slowed or stopped, with the best course of action being to halt the current trajectory of temperature, atmosphere, and ocean acidity changes.
- Military funding includes a program valued at "$75 million or $7 million" at the University of Texas at Austin to analyze climate-driven security challenges and migration in Africa.
- There is a mismatch between where agricultural innovation is needed and where technical capacity exists, with a lack of on-the-ground institutions hindering technology transfer.
- Adaptation discussions may shift politics toward preserving existing ecosystems, and pledging adaptation money in international negotiations could provide leverage to encourage emission cuts.
- Planners must account for "unknown unknowns" beyond the standard 30-year horizon as the planet operates outside its historical carbon dioxide bandwidth.