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Climate-change migrants: what can be done?
- Hundreds of millions of people could be forced to leave their homes in the coming years due to climate change, with the majority anticipated to move shorter distances within their own countries.
- Specific regional impacts include up to 5% of Africa's population potentially being forced to move by 2050 due to the climate crisis, with up to 100 million people displaced in a worst-case scenario involving warming of more than three degrees above pre-industrial levels.
- Warming between 2 and 2.5 degrees is expected to make the majority of uninhabitable parts of the world located in the developing world, with one continent expected to feel the heat more than any other.
- At least five island nations could face partial submersion by 2100, with up to two million people affected, while specific nations like Tuvalu risk losing their entire landmass.
- Rising sea levels and the disappearance of natural buffers are expected to worsen the impact of hurricanes, threatening populations in large cities such as Lagos, Alexandria, and Dakar.
- Without advanced planning, most communities are expected to suffer catastrophic losses, and even in the rich world, governments are unlikely to initiate plans to move populations.
- Disagreements regarding solutions will largely center on financial matters, with the most needy and vulnerable populations left behind requiring assistance to move.
- Governments in the rich world should prioritize planning for population relocation alongside emission reductions and adaptive actions, as advanced planning is expected to be cheaper, more manageable, and more successful than reactive measures.
- Managed retreat is proposed as a method to build inner resilience, allowing communities to continue being productive and hopeful despite the climate crisis remaking who they are, where they are, and how they live.