Panel
Climate Change: Threat or Opportunity for the Global Economy?
Milken InstituteMike Scott, Lord Gregory Barker, Baron Barker of Battle, Ben Goldsmith, David Hone, Sonia Medina, Gérard Moutet, Greg, Steve Podmore
- The low-carbon economy has reached an irreversible momentum driven by innovation and economics, making it resilient to political opposition or delays similar to the decline of the CD industry, with global consensus on climate threats expected to persist.
- China aims to peak emissions in a large number of cities by 2020, has already peaked coal consumption, and plans to integrate provincial carbon pricing into a nationwide cap-and-trade system in 2017.
- Western democracies are projected to shift over $1 trillion annually away from fossil fuel imports to create geopolitical opportunities for homegrown alternatives, while the UK's 2008 Climate Change Act is expected to drive policy despite Brexit, though the latter may cause slippage in overall EU ambition.
- Institutional investors are anticipated to treat renewable energy infrastructure as a major opportunity due to low interest rates, begin stress testing portfolios against a two-degree scenario, and prepare for mandatory carbon intensity disclosures following recommendations expected from the Financial Stability Board Task Force by mid-December.
- Renewable energy sources like wind and solar are forecast to reach 6% to 10% of the global mix by 2040, necessitating natural gas as the primary non-renewable source and leading the UK to aim for complete electricity decarbonization and the cessation of uncaptured gas usage by the 2030s.
- Private sector innovation in the bioeconomy is predicted to enter a golden age over the next decade, while the Oil and Gas Climate Initiative plans to invest $1 billion over 10 years and increase greenhouse gas reporting globally over the next two years.
- Shell's new energies division is expected to expand its focus on carbon capture and storage, and hydrogen produced from natural gas with CCS is projected to address transport, industrial, and heating needs while becoming effectively carbon neutral.
- Mission Innovation participants, including the UK, US, and China, have committed to doubling climate solution R&D spending, while falling renewable electricity costs are expected to absorb significant public funding, leaving more capital available for other solutions.
- Tesla is anticipated to potentially achieve profitability in 2018 or 2019, though significant uncertainty remains regarding its competitive viability against established manufacturers like Volkswagen and BMW.