Panel
Connecting Global Markets: Navigating Risk to Unlock Growth | Global Investors' Symposium MX City
- The USMCA trade agreement is projected to survive current tariff pressures and trilateral tensions, with negotiations expected next year, while a robust three-year strategic roadmap between Canada and Mexico aims to strengthen their specific trading and investment relationship.
- Near-shoring and on-shoring manufacturing trends are expected to generate tremendous activity in border towns over the coming years, driven by Mexico's logistical advantages and the USMCA framework, though political mandates to move production to the U.S. are not fully feasible.
- Mexican pension assets under management are projected to grow from approximately $420 billion to nearly $650 billion by 2030 and exceed $1 trillion by 2035, potentially contributing 1% annual GDP growth, with most future investments likely allocated to local onshore projects.
- The global private credit market is forecast to expand from $1.5 trillion to between $2.5 and $2.6 trillion by 2030, with Latin America representing a significant untapped opportunity given its current share of less than 1% of the global total.
- Institutional demand in capital markets is anticipated to nearly double over the next five to ten years, prompting a shift of capital from fixed income as interest rates decline from 7.5% to 6.50% by the end of the year in search of higher yields.
- Mexico is expected to maintain a favorable position within Latin America due to its scale and proximity to the U.S. market, though it faces challenges regarding FX volatility and public debt levels relative to regional peers.
- Significant investment opportunities are anticipated in energy (including AI data centers and nuclear power), maritime infrastructure, health technologies, FinTech, and sustainability themes such as grid modernization, water, and climate adaptation.
- Fiscal stability in Mexico is supported by a "good order" fiscal house and a potential commodity cycle, with currencies expected to strengthen over the next four years amid a market-friendly government orientation.
- Long-term infrastructure projects with horizons of 10 to 15 plus years require clear, stable, and predictable rules and public-private partnerships to unlock capital, as market uncertainty currently prevents pricing of these risks.
- Risks include potential deficiencies in private credit quality assessments during market downturns, the likelihood of FinTech startup failures alongside successes, and the need to navigate externalities in trade negotiations to prevent relationship breakdowns.